Will The Iowa Dem Caucus Be Democratic? The Key Turnout Question

Zogby completes his book cooking and now has Obama firmly in the lead. It is not that I do not believe it is so. In fact I do. but like Zogby's cooking of his books, it is based on the DMR Poll.

Unlike DMR, Zogby releases no internals about his poll. So much easier to cook them that way. But leaving that aside, the key question the DMR Poll presents is this - will Independents and Republicans will turn out in unprecedented numbers for an Iowa Caucus (DMR predicts that 40 percent of Dem caucusgoers will be Indys, in 2004, when there was NO GOP Caucus, it was 19%, and 5% will be Republicans, in 2004 it was 1%). If turnout is similar to 2004, the DMR Poll would predict a Clinton victory.

So there you have it. Obama will make history and Iowans will vote in unprecedented fashion is the Gold Standard prediction. I'll accept it. So what does it mean? First things first. NOW Obama MUST WIN Iowa tonight. Not finish second to anyone. A loss will be crushing for him. Edwards always had to win. Inadvertently, I think Clinton has won the expectations game. She is expected to lose. And a loss will hurt of course. Indeed, I think a loss to an Obama win costs her the nomination. But if Edwards wins and of course, if she wins, I think she secures the nomination.

And about what's next? Well, New Hampshire is a state where Independents can vote in any primary, Dem or GOP. The Media will be interesting here. They LOOOVE McCain. If they pump Obama hard, they will be killing McCain's chances as it will drive NH Independents to Obama and away from McCain. That will be the end of the Media Darling candidate of all time. Something to watch. New Hampshire is just 5 days away from today.

As for the GOP in Iowa, I think Romney wins tonight and in NH and sweeps to the GOP nomination. Then he becomes easy fodder for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, who becomes the first African American President of the United States.

< Late Night: The Shape of Things to Come | Iowa Independents Flocking To Both Parties? >
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    Romney (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Plutonium Page on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:44:12 AM EST
    I'd much rather have Romney than McCain.  I think any of our top-tier candidates could beat him more easily than they could beat McCain... not because I don't like our candidates (I think they'd all be good), but because people still have that misconception that McCain is "moderate".  You and I have talked about that before (and how we have to set people straight on it).

    That's all navel-gazing, though.  I'm lurking and watching the Talk Left coverage.  You guys are doing a fantastic job.

    McCain would beat Obama (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:01:44 AM EST
    Yep (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by Plutonium Page on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:10:55 AM EST
    I agree.

    (Woohoo, looking forward to my first troll-rating here! Kidding.  Primary wars, and all.)


    Heh (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:11:20 AM EST
    BTD owns Zogby (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by GOPmurderedconscience on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:52:34 AM EST
    I read the poll this morning and my first thought was "Big Tent Dem knows Zogby very well". You have been writing for days that Zogby is a fraud and will find a way to match the DMR poll.

    With his last 2 polls he made your life easy and made you look like a genius.

    Anyone who has watched him (none / 0) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:03:05 AM EST
    knows this.

    Of course today many would rather make this newsworthy.

    It is not. I suppose neither is his cooking of the books.


    Oh (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:22:56 AM EST
    I also want to say for idiot Obama supporters who apparently can not read, I do NOT believe Republicans are gaming the system by crossing over to vote for Obama.

    They like his message is my theory. Now if that is a good thing I leave for your own analysis.

    A lot of these (none / 0) (#9)
    by Slado on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:27:57 AM EST
    "Republicans" are not conservatives they are people who might have voted for Reagan or Bush in the past becasue their choices where between them or the poor candidates the dems choose to run against them.

    The lady NBC is pushing is on Obama's website so how can we really call her a republican?

    They are really moderates who have chosen a party and could be either a dem or repub because they are far to the left of a Huckabee supporter and far to the right of a Kucinich or Dodd reporter.

    These people make me laugh because their buying the Obama as the centrist moderate candidate hook line and sinker when he's a bigger liberal then Hillary.  They are just "hungry for change" whatever that means.   We see how well that worked out for the 2006 congress.


    Strange how that works.. (none / 0) (#11)
    by TheRealFrank on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:17:52 AM EST
    Apparently, the independents think Obama is more of a bi-partisan centrist, and Democrats consider him to be on the liberal side of the main Dem candidates. They can't both be true, and, in fact, neither is.

    Obama's voting record during his time in the Senate is very close to e.g. Clinton's. Which is pretty liberal, but people think he's more liberal than Clinton. Some of his proposals are even a bit more to the right than Edwards and Obama (on things like healthcare and the environment).

    But, elections are all about perceptions, and if Obama pulls this off, I have to give credit where credit is due: well done by his campaign. If he wins Iowa, a lot of people will have to sheepishly admit that he had a smart strategy.

    Of course, during the general, it won't be so easy to be everything to everyone. Especially not if he'll be up against McCain, who has always appealed to independents.


    I think you just called me an idiot! (none / 0) (#14)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:57:55 AM EST
    No (none / 0) (#16)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:07:35 AM EST
    If you said I SAID IT you would be called an idiot.

    Good, 'cause I still think there will (none / 0) (#17)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:11:18 AM EST
    Republicans voting for whom they deem the most defeatable Dem.

    Maybe (none / 0) (#18)
    by BDB on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:16:23 AM EST
    But it's going to be a small number.  I suspect any GOP participation comes from them being thoroughly disheartened by their own choices - who can blame them - and figure the next president will come from the Dem side.  Obama, who isn't so mean as to point out most of the problems he'll have to fix come from their lousy electoral choices, is the natural choice for them.

    Remember last election (none / 0) (#8)
    by Slado on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:24:26 AM EST
    Dean was going to be the same thing and he crashed and burned.

    Nobody knows what's going to happen.

    We'll see but the establishment candiates, McCain, Hillary and Rudy still have lots of money and muscle to flex and in the end might be the last people standing.

    We'll see though.

    Who are the independents? (none / 0) (#10)
    by koshembos on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:43:45 AM EST
    I wonder whether there are any articles or papers about the nature of the independents. My intuition, not knowledge, is that most independents tend to be highly moderate Republican. If this the case, McCain wins NH and Obama loses there.

    I'll also add that if my assumption is correct then independents understand where Obama stands on issues much better than the Democrats that support him. In other words, they know that he is one of them.

    In any event, if Obama wins then the result of the Bush catastrophe is that the race for president will be between two Republicans: Obama and Mr. X. I also believe that Obama will lose to McCain for the reasons outlined above and even Romney may be tough because his team will be the standard swift boat gang. A Hillary win doesn't change the race much. Edwards win, however, has to be assessed totally differently.

    Will the caucuses be Democratic? (none / 0) (#12)
    by commissar on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:31:01 AM EST
    No Republicans nor Independents will vote in the Democratic caucuses, only R's and I's who change their party affiliation to D.

    It is odd that someone with the handle "Big Tent" Democrat consistently misrepresents this, and questions whether it's a good thing.

    Nah, it's gotta be a bad thing to recruit new members to a political party. They will all be Lieberman clones and triangulators and Broderite villagers, anyway. Who needs 'em!

    Please you folks (none / 0) (#15)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:06:57 AM EST
    Get new material. The Big Tent line is so old I first heard it when I fell of my dinosaur.

    And I last heard it 5 minutes before you used it.


    wow (none / 0) (#13)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:43:29 AM EST
    Wow, you are picking them already?

    I say Hillary wins tonight by 2 full percentage points ahead of obama with edwards finishing a distant 3rd.  Turnout will be poor due to weather.  

    Romney wins by almost 4% with Huckabilly in second.  Pat Robertson won the Iowa Caucus many years ago so I wonder if Huckabilly will surprise more than he already has.

    I wasn't even close (none / 0) (#27)
    by Jlvngstn on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:20:07 AM EST
    I guess i should not be surprised about huckabilly, after all robertson won Iowa also..

    Uhm, no. (none / 0) (#19)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:32:22 AM EST
    "Turnout will be poor due to weather"

    Its going to be upper 20's and sunny in Ioway today.  That ain't doing to keep many down on the farm.  In fact, that is almost balmy for January in Iowa.

    Turn out will be very good--and will exceed last time.  

    lol (none / 0) (#20)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 01:23:28 PM EST
    I meant that in jest, as all the news stations are forecasting record turnouts.  I did not word it properly but said it with a chuckle when i typed it, but I don't think that counts. 20 degrees in Iowa is pleasant.

    My apologies then (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 03:06:36 PM EST
    But it is hard to tell with all of the stereotypes about Iowa being thrown about the last few days.

    Iowa's flat and boring, Iowans live in barnhouses, it's so cold in Iowa and the like...  


    But the hotel bars (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Maryb2004 on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 03:10:50 PM EST
    are full of celebrities ...

    Indeed (none / 0) (#24)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 04:24:55 PM EST
    ...and it would seem well after the 2am state mandated closing time.  I guess the rules truly are different if you're rich and/or famous.

    Wouldn't have happened when I was tending bar in Iowa City!


    You are sooo perceptive. (none / 0) (#25)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:34:12 PM EST
    I should have put a smiley face after it (none / 0) (#23)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 03:49:28 PM EST
    It reads exactly the way you interpreted it.  I needed to apologize. 20 degrees for us midwesterners is warm for January....

    Must ask (former Iowan) are the (none / 0) (#26)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:35:26 PM EST
    streets and highways free of ice?  Makes all the difference, especially w/those "geriatic" potential caucus goers who can't catch a ride from the Clinton campaign.