Will The Iowa Dem Caucus Be Democratic? The Key Turnout Question
Zogby completes his book cooking and now has Obama firmly in the lead. It is not that I do not believe it is so. In fact I do. but like Zogby's cooking of his books, it is based on the DMR Poll.
Unlike DMR, Zogby releases no internals about his poll. So much easier to cook them that way. But leaving that aside, the key question the DMR Poll presents is this - will Independents and Republicans will turn out in unprecedented numbers for an Iowa Caucus (DMR predicts that 40 percent of Dem caucusgoers will be Indys, in 2004, when there was NO GOP Caucus, it was 19%, and 5% will be Republicans, in 2004 it was 1%). If turnout is similar to 2004, the DMR Poll would predict a Clinton victory.
So there you have it. Obama will make history and Iowans will vote in unprecedented fashion is the Gold Standard prediction. I'll accept it. So what does it mean? First things first. NOW Obama MUST WIN Iowa tonight. Not finish second to anyone. A loss will be crushing for him. Edwards always had to win. Inadvertently, I think Clinton has won the expectations game. She is expected to lose. And a loss will hurt of course. Indeed, I think a loss to an Obama win costs her the nomination. But if Edwards wins and of course, if she wins, I think she secures the nomination.
And about what's next? Well, New Hampshire is a state where Independents can vote in any primary, Dem or GOP. The Media will be interesting here. They LOOOVE McCain. If they pump Obama hard, they will be killing McCain's chances as it will drive NH Independents to Obama and away from McCain. That will be the end of the Media Darling candidate of all time. Something to watch. New Hampshire is just 5 days away from today.
As for the GOP in Iowa, I think Romney wins tonight and in NH and sweeps to the GOP nomination. Then he becomes easy fodder for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, who becomes the first African American President of the United States.
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