What To Look For From The Iowa Entrance Polls

The networks will employ entrance polls from Edison Research (you can't exit poll a caucus) tonight in Iowa. As Todd Beeton notes, this provides a strange dynamic in that we will have entrance polling data analyzed on television BEFORE the caucuses are completed. Stoller opines, correctly in my view, that:

I'm starting to think that the entrance poll will determine the media narrative after Iowa, not the final caucus results. If someone wins the entrance poll, but loses after second-choices are allocated, both the campaign and the media will point that out in pretty much every write-up of the caucuses.

But what of the things the Media will talk about before the caucus is over? Turnout will be the main thing. I believe they will talk about what percentage of the caucus goers are Democrats, Independents and Republicans. If you have been reading me, you know that I believe that Obama's win will depend on historic Independent and Republican participation in these caucuses. We will know if that happened based on these entrance polls. In essence, I believe we will know what will happen based on that result, which we will know BEFORE the caucuses are even finished.

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    This is one Democrat who will be mad (none / 0) (#1)
    by Teresa on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:00:43 PM EST
    if the entrance poll differs greatly from the final results. Also if the Independent vote is really that big. It doesn't seem fair to me that the rest of the country may get a candidate selected by people in Iowa who don't consider themselves enough of a Democrat to register that way before now.

    And I'll feel that way no matter who benefits if it does happen like that. I just hope the Feb 5 voters will not let it determine their vote. I know I won't.

    There are unlikely to be the same. (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by JSN on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:10:39 PM EST
    The entrance poll counts people prior to the determination of viability. Some people will leave if their candidate is not viable,  join the uncommitted group if it is viable or become an observer in other words they are only counted by the entrance poll as being for a candidate.

    The entrance poll is sort of like putting a bean in a jar with the name of your candidate and the reporters count the beans.


    Yeah I forgot about the ones who support (none / 0) (#3)
    by Teresa on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:16:31 PM EST
    someone who gets less than 15%. Still, I don't like the way this works in Iowa. A secret vote should be a minimum requirement to me.

    Oh well, at least it's exciting and I usually never skip a college football game for anything.


    You don't exhibit any confidence in the power (none / 0) (#4)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:17:24 PM EST
    of persuasion amongst the caucus participants.  

    Heh (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:24:28 PM EST
    For example, I've repeatedly (none / 0) (#7)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:38:04 PM EST
    inquired of Obama supporters here just why they support him.  Not getting much response.  What will the Obama caucus goers reps. say to persuade the other people there to come over to Obama's camp?

    You, there, assume that (none / 0) (#6)
    by koshembos on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:33:10 PM EST
    Obama is the closest Democratic candidates to the idea of a proper president in the eyes of Independents. How about choosing Bloma?

    Well, I'm out to a long dinner shortly (none / 0) (#8)
    by andgarden on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 06:05:37 PM EST
    I expect to know the full picture by the time I get back!

    You are losing cred as a political junkie. (none / 0) (#9)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 06:16:10 PM EST
    The creditors will get over it (none / 0) (#10)
    by andgarden on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 06:19:57 PM EST