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Crunching the South Carolina Numbers

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 01:15:00 AM EST
Tags: South Carolina 08 (all tags)
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Here's the vote tally for yesterday's South Carolina Democratic primary. Here's the map of counties.

A few observations I didn't hear on tv last night:

  • While Hillary and Edwards only won one county each, in several counties, their combined totals exceeded Obama's. Among them: Anderson, Chesterfield, Cherokee, Lancaster, Lexington, Newberry, Pickens, Spartanburg and York.
  • Hillary drew more votes than Obama in Oconee County, which was won by Edwards.

More...

  • Horrey County, the one county Clinton won, has four colleges.
  • Obama's vote total: 295, 214. Hillary and Edwards combined vote total: 234, 793. Candidates who dropped out: 2,461 votes. So the total vote was 532,468. Of that, Obama got 55% of the vote, the other candidates got 45%.
  • Perspective: Obama scored a big win over Hillary Clinton, but not so big among all Democrats. Democratic primary voters preferred Obama by 10 percentage points. He's clearly the favored candidate, but there was also a strong preference shown for someone other than Obama.
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    Crunching the South Carolina Numbers | 38 comments (38 topical)
    What's funny (5.00 / 0) (#13)
    by phat on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 02:17:47 AM EST
    and it mean this in more than one meaning of funny, is that the Obama supporters seem to think that they are the Democratic base.

    That video pretty much says it all.

    Who will determine the next Democratic nominee? I don't think it will be non-partisans or Republicans who cross over in open caucuses or primaries. It'll be dedicated Democratic voters.

    I find it interesting that I'm having a hard time finding numbers about what partisan groups voted in the SC primary. Is that a story that MSNBC doesn't want to talk about.

    Obama has hitched his wagon to open primaries and caucuses, which is pretty shrewd. But it's a gamble nonetheless.

    I don't think it gets him the win.

    That video that you've posted is the face of the people who will make Hillary the nominee.

    That's not a prediction, mind you, but that's just  straight up evidence.

    If Obama takes it, or Edwards for that matter, than something else is up.

    But that video will likely be iconic of Hillary's win.

    phat

    Unspinning the primary (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by RalphB on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 10:04:16 AM EST
    Can we get a grip?  The reality of the SC primary is that Obama went 110% into a state he should win without much problem.  It worked, he got a big win, and we'll see how that gets spun over the next few days.

    Other than fundraising over the internet, I don't see a large impact in the big Feb 5 states.  If internet fundraising was the key, Ron Paul would be winning fwiw.

    ya know (5.00 / 0) (#30)
    by magisterludi on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 10:11:22 AM EST
     that register as a "dem for a day" in the Reno Journal Gazette was quite a coup for Obama on the Republican side before the NV caucus. I would be really surprised if that GOP dog whistle went unheard in SC. Dismissing  talk of republican cross-over chicanery is intellectually dishonest. Don't deny it, deal with it.

    The beauty of spin (3.00 / 2) (#19)
    by lily15 on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 03:43:37 AM EST
    Over 50% African American and an open primary..where not only independents, but Republicans can vote...This is hardly a typical Democratic primary state.  Plus, in general elections, this state is solidly Republican.  So we should consider this state important?  Who cares what the margin is if the state is not representative and will have no impact on the general election?  Iowa and South Carolina are certainly two states that have no business selecting or impacting our selection of a Democratic candidate in any substantial way.  The only mistake HIllary made was not abandoning  this state.  She probably would have done as well whether she stayed or left.  Anyway, the main point is that the pundits and liberal media elite should not tell us how to vote or allocate the importance of a very minor state with the most conservative of roots.  

    Each day I dislike Obama and his followers a little bit more...

    On the perspective... (none / 0) (#1)
    by andreww on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:09:19 AM EST
    No Dem candidate beat the others combined candidates in Iowa or NH.  Your first bullet saying that the Edwards and Hillary combined totals beat Obama is supposed to take away from this victory?  That means using your logic Hillary's win in NH wasn't a big deal.  And Hillary's win in NV wasn't big either apparently because she only beat obaa and edwards combined by a point.

    A 10% point victory over the REST OF THE FIELD COMBINED! This is the biggest win of any candidate in either party since voting began.

    I understand your frustration with the media coverage.  But this is just as biased if not more so.

    It's that perpective (none / 0) (#3)
    by Stellaaa on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:13:57 AM EST
    It's not a mandate.  It's perspective.  

    Parent
    hmm, and you have to consider the (none / 0) (#31)
    by hellothere on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 10:43:43 AM EST
    circumstances. any good politcal analyist will also consider it's importance in the general election along with what the voting groups were and what it means for super tuesday. and frankly, these numbers don't support your candidate. unfortunately obama's win does not translate to upcoming elections.

    Parent
    I said (none / 0) (#2)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:13:02 AM EST
    Obama scored a big win over Hillary. I'm just pointing out that when you consider his total against the others, it's a 10 point margin, not a landslide.

    I'm not frustrated at his win, I expected it. I'm trying to figure out how significant it is, particularly in terms of Super Tuesday.

    I think the numbers point to Edwards taking votes from Obama. And he's staying in the race.

    Taking into consideration (none / 0) (#4)
    by andreww on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:20:51 AM EST
    the victor's numbers versus the rest of the field we have:

    Iowa - Obama 37, rest of field 63
    NH - Hillary 36 - rest of field 60 something
    VN - Hillary 51, rest of filed 49
    SC - Obama 55, rest of field 45

    That seems like a landslide to me when compared to the other states.  

    I agree Edwards staying in the race certainly has an effect on Super Tuesday - but I didn't get that as the point of your first point.

    Parent

    Do you really think he's taking numbers (none / 0) (#5)
    by Teresa on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:34:56 AM EST
    from Obama? I think he's taking Hillary voters. Or at worst a split. My reasoning is that the people who vote for Obama absolutely love him. The Edwards voters are more typical Democrats and would seem likely to switch to Clinton. I think the caucus in Nevada showed that from what I read.

    I may just be projecting from the Edwards supporters I know in Tennessee.

    Parent

    I don't know... (none / 0) (#6)
    by andreww on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:38:39 AM EST
    It's a tough thing to tell.  If I had to bet though I think there are those who like Hillary and those who want someone else.  It's a tough one to read.

    Parent
    Try 28 (none / 0) (#34)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 11:06:39 AM EST
    Obama scored a big win over Hillary. I'm just pointing out that when you consider his total against the others, it's a 10 point margin, not a landslide
    .

    But against Hillary it was a 28 point margin.

    Parent

    a salon article on the subject (none / 0) (#7)
    by athyrio on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:58:07 AM EST
    good short little article on details....

    Did you read this article on (none / 0) (#9)
    by oculus on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 01:19:38 AM EST
    Salon?

    "Clinton goes straight back to stumping after loss


    Parent

    Oconee County (none / 0) (#8)
    by kid oakland on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 01:16:19 AM EST
    is 89% white.

    Horry County, home to Myrtle Beach, is 81% white.

    Barack Obama (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by kid oakland on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 01:42:02 AM EST
    in CNN exit polls:

    52% of Non-Black vote 18-29
    25% of Non-Black vote 30-44 (Edw: 41%)
    25% of Non-Black vote 45-59 (Edw: 40%)
    15% of Non-Black vote 60+ (Edw/Cl: 42%)

    When you write "but not so big among all Democrats" what you are really talking about is Barack Obama's weakness with White South Carolina Democrats over 60.

    Parent

    What do you predict this win will (none / 0) (#11)
    by oculus on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 01:56:16 AM EST
    do for Obama besides give him these SC delegates?

    Parent
    Your entire premise (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by kid oakland on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 02:50:15 AM EST
    is that Obama hasn't been doing well.

    I don't agree. Barack Obama has two big wins, and two close contests that were, nevertheless, widely perceived as bigger Clinton wins than they actually were. Obama leads on votes, on delegates and on numerous diversity measures coming out of Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

    I mean, lost in the shock of the NH tally was the fact that Obama got 30,000 more votes in NH than either Gore or Bradley did in 2000 and trailed Clinton by only 3%.

    Not bad for the Senator from Illinois.

    Suggesting that a Black candidate who just won 52% of non-Blacks under 30 in SC is "weak with Whites" doesn't make sense to me. It's a nice try but it's a misuse of South Carolina...Democrats over 60 in South Carolina are a particular demographic and Edwards is a native son.

    Imo, suggesting that a candidate who just won 80% of the Af-Am vote against the Clinton campaign in a record-setting turnout primary needs some other "boost" is ignoring the reality that up until two months ago Clinton was extraordinarily strong with Af-Am voters in the polls and I'm sure was counting on Af-Am support for Fat Tuesday.

    Why would Barack Obama NOT be ready to challenge Clinton in New York State and California coming off this win?  Youth plus energized liberals plus Af-Am voters in RECORD turn out is not a bad base and is going to get him delegates all over.

    I think it's pretty clear Obama will fight hard for all of these states and has always planned to do so.

    I look forward to it.

    Parent

    Insurgents don't win the Democratic primary (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by Molly Bloom on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 09:23:05 AM EST
    not since 1976.

    Viewed in the at light, Obama is doing very well so far.

    I still wish he would spend more time pointing out we are seeing the inevitable result of Republican philosphy. Or say it more openly.

    This

    We are up against decades of bitter partisanship that cause politicians to demonize their opponents instead of coming together to make college affordable or energy cleaner; ...
    It's about whether we settle for the same divisions and distractions and drama that passes for politics today

    may  be a veiled way of saying so.

    Others have pointed out this sounds like campaigning against "the brain dead politics of the past"  which did well for that candidate- carried him to the White House- until gays in the military became the rallying point for defeated republicans and blue dogs.

    The leopard will not change its spots. I hope Obama doesn't seriously thing the GOP will compromise. On anything.  


    Parent

    Energized liberals (5.00 / 0) (#27)
    by magster on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 09:58:50 AM EST
    will be much more energized if Obama stands up on FISA.

    Parent
    Give him (none / 0) (#12)
    by Jgarza on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at