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Obama in 2008: More Like 1912 Than 1932

[Cross-posted from ProgressiveHistorians.]


Daily Kos has recently been abuzz with speculation that the coming Presidential election will play out similarly to that of 1932 -- a dramatic realignment election that puts Dems on top for a generation.  DHinMI advanced this argument in a very good three-part series last month.  Today, New Deal democrat provides more evidence of this phenomenon by pointing out that economic conditions were similar in some ways then to how they are now.


It's an interesting, if optimistic, argument, but I disagree with one of its underlying assumptions -- particularly if Barack Obama becomes the Democratic nominee.  In that eventuality, I think Woodrow Wilson's campaign in 1912, rather than Franklin Roosevelt's in 1932, is more likely to serve as a useful model for the 2008 election.

I should state at the outset that my record of historical model-choosing for this election is decidedly mixed.  While I correctly foresaw as early as November that the lack of a Thomas Dewey-1948-like bedrock conservative in the race would result in a Republican field filled with subpar candidates, ripe for the picking by an ultraconservative politician, I incorrectly pegged Sam Brownback instead of Mike Huckabee for that role.  Then, I compounded my error by suggesting that Fred Thompson would fill the Dewey role in the Republican field.  On the plus side, I did use the model of the 1960 election to correctly predict that Al Gore would not run for President.  So, I guess what I'm getting at is that you should take my attempt here with a grain of salt.


Still, I'