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Expectations Game: Obama Campaign Predicts Win In Iowa

The bar is set. For Obama to "win" Iowa, he has to win. His campaign predicts a win in Iowa:

Democrat Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters this morning that Obama is positioned to win the Iowa Caucuses. "We think we're going to enter caucus night with enough supporters identified to win even under the most aggressive scenarios," Plouffe said.

Alrighty then Axelrod and Co. No spinning a loss into a win now on January 3. The Clinton and Edwards campaigns played the usual "do well" platitude games.

So here is the Obama campaign, in the face of dropping poll numbers, confidently predicting victory. Bluster? Strategy? I dunno, but it will be hard to back off of this if they do NOT win.

Update [2007-12-31 14:51:31 by Big Tent Democrat]: More on the Obama campaign conference call below the fold. It may have come more to spin forthcoming bad poll numbers and to attack Edwards

From Noam Scheiber:

Like other people on that Obama conference call today, I noticed campaign manager David Plouffe spending an awful lot of time talking about why a vote for John Edwards is essentially a wasted vote, since (Plouffe claimed) he doesn't really have the resources or the organization to compete after Iowa. It's possible that the Obama people see Edwards as the candidate with momentum in the home stretch. Or it's possible that Obama and Edwards are just competing for the same bloc of voters--pro-reform, skeptical of Hillary. (Or both.) Tough to say, really.

Also, Ambinder says some reporters are speculating that the call was intended to pre-empt what will be lousy numbers for Obama in tonight's Des Moines Register poll. For what it's worth, I did get the sense Plouffe was basically saying: Don't read too much into the polls. We have the best organization, which is going to be the difference here.

Relatedly, Plouffe said at one point, "We've consistently led ... among those definitely attending [the caucuses] in our internal research… We're focused on how we're doing among those deadset on going to that caucus room Thursday night." In my contemporaneous notes, I wrote, "Probably trailing among likely voters"--which, obviously, is what polls report.

On second spin, I think this is REALLY bad for Obama. This conference cal