What To Look For In Iowa: The Expectations Spin

How do we know how the candidates are doing? We do not kow for sure really. But the best indicator imo will be the spin coming out of the diffferent camps.

If Obama starts downplaying expectations and talking about New Hampshire, then you will know his campaign has stalled in Iowa. He eeds to win the Hillary Alternative race and beating down expectations of an Edwards victory is the best way to get the waverers. But if he has concluded that winning Iowa is very unlikely he will have to switch tack. That is what I will be watching for the most.

Edwards has to win Iowa. I think that all their spin will be how they will win. No matter what the situation.

From the Clinton camp, what I would look for is if they start talking about winning Iowa. They have done all they can to damp down expectations. If they suddenly try to go back to "we are going to win" mode then that would mean they like their chances and are going for a knockout blow.

3 days to go.

< Jane and I are Off to Iowa | Limits To The Kumbaya Schtick >
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    Obama's Campaign Manager Predicts Victory In DMR (none / 0) (#1)
    by jaman12 on Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 01:19:12 PM EST
    Democrat Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters this morning that Obama is positioned to win the Iowa Caucuses.

    "We think we're going to enter caucus night with enough supporters identified to win even under the most aggressive scenarios," Plouffe said.


    heh (none / 0) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 01:24:24 PM EST
    We think . . . aggressive scenarios?



    Obama Will Talk Of Winning (none / 0) (#3)
    by BDB on Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 01:35:42 PM EST
    I think the Obama campaign will predict a win no matter what they really think.  They need to get people to the caucuses and expectations are already set at high for them at this point.  Their supporters are less "decided" than some of the others according to polls and they can't afford to have them reconsider Edwards or some other candidate because they think Obama might not win.

    I think Clinton will talk up just enough to get people to show, but will continue to downplay expectations otherwise.  She doesn't benefit by raising expectations except to ensure that people show up.  Interestingly, while polls show she does worst among second choicers, her supporters poll as among the most decided (at least among the ones I've seen).

    Edwards, who probably is in the best position to win, will continue saying so, trying to pull people off Obama.  

    It's gone to be very interesting to see what actually comes out of all of this.  Stupid that so few people will have so much influence, but impossibly entertaining for those of us who are political junkies.

    I think they make a mistake (none / 0) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 01:38:09 PM EST
    doing that. Iowa should NOT be the be all and end all for them.

    Second to Edwards SHOULD be good enough to keep going well.

    But see my latest post.