Another New Iowa Poll: McClatchy - MSNBC

Iowa remains inscrutable. Big Tent Democrat wrote earlier about the latest Zogby and Mason Dixon polls. McClatchy-MSNBC also released a poll this morning. The poll (pdf)is of 400 likely Democratic caucus goers. The first question asks whom they would vote for if the caucuses were held today.The Answers:

Edwards: 24%
Hillary: 23%
Obama: 22%
Richardson: 12%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 2%

Only 20% say they might change their mind. On second choices, Edwards is way ahead of Obama and Clinton. Taking the supporters of Richardson, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich collectively, and adding them to the numbers of those already voting for the big three, it looks like this:

Edwards 33%
Obama 26%
Clinton 26%

McClatchy analyzes the poll results:

While the survey shows a virtual statistical tie, it also shows Edwards with some momentum heading into the final days. He's gained 3 percentage points since McClatchy-MSNBC polled Iowa before the holidays, while Clinton lost 4 points and Obama lost 3 points. Also gaining were Richardson and Biden, each picking up 3 points.


If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama.

....Edwards, pushing a people-versus-the powerful message, owes his gains to voters looking for a general election winner, someone who agrees with them on the issues, and those who rank Iraq their top concern. Key demographic slices for him include men and union members.

Edwards has a high favorability rating and lower unfavorability rating. Hillary doesn't fare as well here.

Who's for Hillary?

Clinton owes her solid standing to strong support from women, voters over age 50, and Democrats who rank health care as their top issue and experience as the most important personal characteristic.

Who's for Obama?

Obama has the edge among young voters under 30, those looking for a new approach to politics, and honesty. His challenge: low support among those valuing experience most, and convincing people he can win.

The demographics of those polled is interesting: 58% were women and 65% were over age 50. 76% do not live in a union household.

< Iowa: Who Really Votes at Caucuses | Sully's Full CDS On Display >
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    Same poll (none / 0) (#1)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 12:35:46 PM EST
    Mason Dixon is the polling outfit. Sorry, I should have made that clear.

    J I have one more post today and then I am done for a while.

    Curious Naming Anomaly (none / 0) (#2)
    by bradkc on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 02:39:35 PM EST
    Why did you use surnames to identify all the candidates except Clinton, whom you typically refer to as "Hillary"? I realize that's her first name, her given name, but all the others have first names, too.

    Has she become the Bono or Pele of American politics?

    A lot of bloggers (none / 0) (#3)
    by Coral on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:00:13 PM EST
    are doing this. It annoys me too, but I am at the point of giving up. After all, HRC herself uses "Hillary for President" as a campaign slogan.

    If you visit their websites (none / 0) (#4)
    by illissius on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:11:46 PM EST
    it's the same way they refer to themselves. My impression after a quick scan of each: hillaryclinton.com uses "Hillary" almost exclusively, johnedwards.com usually uses "John Edwards", sometimes just "Edwards", while barackobama.com seems to use a mix of all three forms.

    As for why, I think she's (a) trying to draw attention away from the dynastic aspects of her candidacy and (b) trying to seem more personable.


    And acknowledging (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:50:24 PM EST
    that folks call her Hillary.

    That is the MAIN reason imo.


    To Avoid Confusion (none / 0) (#5)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:15:42 PM EST
    To use "Clinton" instead of Hillary could mean Bill.  "John" is too non-descript, and there's another John (McCain) in the race.

    As for Obama, that's how the press refers to him -- I never see articles quoting him as "Barack."  

    So, it's Hillary, Edwards and Obama.


    Exactly (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:49:38 PM EST