USA Today's New Hampshire Poll: Another Toss-Up

USA Today has released a new poll of New Hampshire voters. It's a toss-up between Hillary and Obama, but there is a 5% margin of error rate. Even so, there are a few differentiating clues.

  • Who are you leaning towards? Note, this was asked of Democrats and those leaning towards a Democrat but without a preference.
Hillary 32%, Obama 32%, Edwards 18%

  • How certain are you to vote for that person?(Note, this was asked of Democrat voters not those leaning without a preference)
Hillary 20%, Obama 18%, Edwards 10%

  • Second choice (asked of those Dems with a stated preference)
Edwards, 23%; Obama 22%; Hillary 20%

Other findings:

  • 65% consider position on issues more important to their choice than whether they can beat a Republican (30%.)
  • Most important issues, in order: Iraq, health care, economic conditions. Only 3% named immigration.
  • While those polled think Obama is most in touch with Americans, followed by Edwards, then Hillary, they said Hillary has the best chance of beating a Republican -- Hillary 47%, Obama 26%, Edwards 17%.
  • Value sharing: Obama 29%, Hillary 25%, Edwards, 23%.
  • While they credit Obama far more than Hillary for new ideas, (Obama 42%, Edwards 20%, Hillary 19%) they think Hillary is far more apt to get things done in Washington. (Hillary 50%, Obama 18%, Edwards 14%.

My take: Given the margin of error at 5%, I don't think it tells us much that is new.

Also, a question I have after reading it, is whether what happens in Iowa will affect New Hampshire voters. Also, there's the Independent factor in New Hampshire. The results were based on voters most likely to vote in the Democratic primary, which in N.H. includes Independents. Will they follow through?

Lastly, since New Hampshire is not a caucus state, it would seem that second place doesn't carry the same weight as it does in Iowa. I think the stronger number is those who say they won't change their mind.

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    and really, isn't that the whole (none / 0) (#1)
    by cpinva on Fri Dec 21, 2007 at 11:19:10 PM EST

    they think Hillary is far more apt to get things done in Washington.

    otherwise, why even bother? i predict, when the dust settles, sen. clinton will win, in a rout, for just this reason. idealism certainly has its place, but realism pays the bills.

    Examining this poll (none / 0) (#2)
    by Aaron on Sat Dec 22, 2007 at 01:12:46 AM EST
    (Asked of Democratic voters) Regardless of which candidate you support, who do you think reflects the following characteristics the most?

    Obama leads in these 4 categories

    A. Is in touch with the average American

    Barack Obama -- 37%

    John Edwards -- 28%

    Hillary Clinton -- 19%


    C. Stands up for what he or she believes in

    Barack Obama -- 32%

    Hillary Clinton -- 26%

    John Edwards -- 22%


    D. Shares your values

    Barack Obama -- 29%

    Hillary Clinton -- 25%

    John Edwards -- 23%


    E. Has new ideas that would help solve the
    country's problems

    Barack Obama -- 42%

    John Edwards -- 20%

    Hillary Clinton -- 19%


    Clinton leads in these 2 categories

    B. Has the best chance of beating the Republican in November

    Hillary Clinton -- 47%

    Barack Obama -- 26%

    John Edwards -- 17%


    F. Can get things done in Washington

    Hillary Clinton -- 50%

    Barack Obama -- 18%

    John Edwards -- 14%


    Zogby Poll: Obama Leads Top Republicans