Obama Leads In Latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll

Obama moves up:

Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register's poll as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucusgoers, up from 22 percent in October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25 percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who led in the Register's May poll, held steady with 23 percent, in third place, but part of the three-way battle.

Can I note one more time that Sen. Edwards' attacks on Senator Clinton have NOT helped him, that he has ceded the Hillary alternative mantle to Senator Obama? Well, I just did. Note, this is all within the margin of error stuff so who is actually ahead is not easy to say. What DOES seem clear is that Obama is moving up, Hillary down and Edwards is not moving at all.

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    Obama has a much better organization (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Geekesque on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 10:36:58 AM EST
    on the ground too.

    He will win Iowa, and that will give him a bump to win NH.  

    At which point he becomes the frontrunner.  Can Clinton run a come-from-behind campaign?  I doubt it.

    YES!!! :-) (none / 0) (#1)
    by Aaron on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 07:53:35 AM EST
    Obama 08, time to win one for the American people!

    Does Edwards still believe he can win? (none / 0) (#2)
    by joejoejoe on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 09:13:36 AM EST
    If Edwards doesn't believe he can win then his negativity makes a lot more sense as a hedge for a future career in the cabinet of President Obama. Gephardt behaved the same way in '04. IIRC Gephardt was much lower in the polls when he started going after the frontrunner Dean but Edwards may have seen the writing on the wall earlier and decided he could live with being Secretary of Labor in an Obama administration a lot better than he could live with being home in North Carolina in a Clinton administration.

    Edwards isn't moving at all. (none / 0) (#3)
    by Maryb2004 on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 09:29:07 AM EST
    That's true.

    I think Edwards decided he couldn't win right before he announced on the public funding.  That's the only thing that makes sense to me on that decision.   If he couldn't win then he might as well choose the highly ethical but politically stupid stance on funding.  

    If you assume that he decided he couldn't win, what he's done makes more sense.

    Great, another Republican (none / 0) (#5)
    by koshembos on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 02:18:37 PM EST
    If Obama wins the whole enceleda we will have a Rockefeller Republican represent the poor and the middle class. Must be the dream of Feinstein and the Nelsons.

    Not so sure (none / 0) (#6)
    by DA in LA on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 02:49:39 PM EST
    You can lay the fall on Edwards negativity.  Everyone in Iowa knows Edwards and Hillary already and have made up their mind on the two.  They are now starting to take a look at the people they don't know.  Some people are saying, "Oh, I like this guy a bit more" or "How about something new."  They then are switching to Obama.

    I hope he does keep up the attacks and Obama keeps moving up.  I really, really don't want Hillary.

    Edwards won the debate with Cheney (none / 0) (#8)
    by pioneer111 on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 10:05:45 AM EST
    From a CBS poll
    Forty-one percent of these uncommitted debate watchers said Edwards won the debate tonight. Twenty-eight percent said Cheney won. Thirty-one percent thought it was a tie.

    Your commentary comes from a lack of knowledge and therefore produces useless analysis.

    Secondly, Edwards support in Iowa is solid which is why it isn't slipping.  I just don't see the negativity that is being put on Edwards.  He challenged Clinton and rightly showed the differences between them.  

    Obama was looking weak and needed to also differentiate.  Clinton and Obama are now attacking each other.  I'm not sure how that will play out, but one has to respond to criticism and so the challenge becomes how to create a balance of strength and positive vision.  It is difficult for all of them to determine what is an attack and what is justifiable differentiation.

    My prediction is that Edwards will win Iowa.  I do support Edwards but I was worried that no one was challenging Clinton.  Edwards decided that he had to risk being clear and be seen as negative.  I think he will pull off the right balance.  And I think it is a tight race.

    Please provide a link to John Edwards' (none / 0) (#9)
    by oculus on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 07:32:49 PM EST
    attack on Hillary Clinton. This must have been a TV thing or I just missed it.