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The Perils Of Polls

Charles Franklin of pollster.com, one of the better analysts of polls, demonstrates the limits of relying on both polls and pollsters. Franklin opines that there has been a significant uptick in how Americans feel the "military efforts" in Iraq are going:

So what to make of the upturn in positive views of how the war is going? Republicans (including the president) have made real progress in swaying opinion to their side, while 10 months of Democratic efforts have failed to persuade citizens that the war continues to be a disaster. The war of partisan persuasion has tilted towards the Republicans and away from the Democrats, at least in this particular aspect.

This is just wrong. Franklin takes a result, "the Surge is working," and turns it into support for the Iraq Debacle. As the most recent polling suggests, Americans seem to understand that whatever success Petraeus is perceived as having militarily (and I think not much of it personally, but that is another issue), the american People understand that the Iraq Debacle is and will be a Debacle irrespective of Petraeus' efforts. Think of it this way - the American People are blaming Bush AND the Iraqis now. Petraeus and the troops are heroic and blameless. Sometimes pollsters can't think past the questions they want to focus on. Franklin is guilty of that here. More.

Kevin Drum made a similar observation yesterday and got smeared by the Times as a reward for his insight:

Responding to my suggestion earlier today that the American public increasingly opposes the Iraq war regardless of how well it's going, Tobin Harshaw of the Opinionator says:
It's a good point, but I suspect some will feel Mr. Drum shows a bit too much pleasure in making it.
Not only is this baseless (read the post and judge for yourself), it's craven. Even worse, it's bad writing . . .

Kevin's point was simply an observation, as he notes, but more than that, Kevin and everyone SHOULD be happy that the American People can understand that Petraeus' Surge is almost wholly irrelevant to the success of the Iraq Debacle.

Everyone SHOULD take pleasure that the American People understand this. Harshaw seems to object to the American People's rise from ignorance. Pathetic of him.