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The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime

Bradford Plumer, who writes his own weblog as well as one for Mother Jones, has an interesting post today on whether drugs cause crime, and in turn, whether drug enforcement strategies reduce crime. He notes that almost everyone, including the White House, has backed off the latter notion.

it seems during the later years of the Clinton Administration, the ONDCP started recognizing that and urged policymakers to interpret the drug/crime relationship "cautiously." The Bush administration, meanwhile, saw a closer connection early on—its 2002 ONDCP report touted drug treatment as an effective way of reducing crime, but has since backed off. The White House's reports, notably, no longer claim to know whether crime can be reduced by reducing drug use—a relationship that was once held sacrosanct by past administrations.

In short, it's really hard to figure out how much anti-drug strategies reduce crime (it's hard to figure out how much any strategy reduces crime—statistics in this field are woefully inadequate), so it's really difficult to figure out whether drug control expenditures are actually worth the high price tag. We don't know whether drug enforcement units—which are found in police stations all across the country—do any good. We don't know whether mandatory minimum penalties reduce trafficking or not (many police chiefs think they don't). We don't even know if breaking up drug markets—which is very effort-intensive and requires constant sweeps and raids—decrease trafficking. The only thing that seems clear is that attacking the supply of drugs from abroad definitely hasn't had much effect.

...Congress—and various federal administrations—tend to treat drug use primarily as a crime problem, when it makes sense in many cases to separate the two issues out. People have come up with some good ideas about what would constitute a more sensible national drug policy, but the paradigm shift here seems like the necessary first step.

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    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#1)
    by scarshapedstar on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 02:39:29 AM EST
    Common-sense empiricism and the associated success it allows (as opposed to unquestioning faith as an ideology and the associated failure that inevitably results) was something I used to think consevatives believed in, back when I considered myself a conservative. ...haha, man, those were the days. And that was before I even so much as drank alcohol! What was I thinking?

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#2)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 05:38:08 AM EST
    To put it bluntly, there's a fixed number of recyclable lies about the relationship of illicit drug use to crime. Every now and then, when the bureaucrats in DC think people have forgotten the last time the lie was used, they dust off their moldy old canards, crank up the wheezing old propaganda machine, and blatt out the nonsense again. While feigning ignorance of the fact that the bad laws created the black market in the first place. But the public is starting to equate drug prohibition with the failure of alcohol Prohibition, and are beginning to look more carefully at the same tired, worn out old cliches being trotted out time and again. Hence the ONDCP is quietly dropping it's previous stance...and hoping that nobody notices. Sorry, guys, but your pants are on fire...and drug law reformers are quite content to allow them to continue to 'burn, baby, burn'.

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#3)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 05:52:28 AM EST
    Prohibition of drugs is essentially a 20th century phenomenon, and nemo is right about prohibition and I hope, right about the public's attitude. Scar, you were right in the beginning. Maybe you should return to your former senses.

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#4)
    by kdog on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 06:47:09 AM EST
    Prohibition always leads to an increase in crime. See 1920's Chicago.

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#5)
    by scarshapedstar on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 07:49:40 AM EST
    I think you misunderstood, Doctor. I still believe in reality-based evaluation of policy as opposed to perceived scriptural imperatives. I just realized that self-described conservatives seemed to be more of the "Jesus told me that this law is necessary and/or successful and you can literally go to hell if you think otherwise" mindset.

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#6)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 10:48:51 AM EST
    Prohibition always leads to an increase in crime. Genius. If nothing were prohibited, there would be no crime.

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#7)
    by kdog on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 11:06:38 AM EST
    Anon...All I want to see prohibited ARE crimes. Y'know...murder, rape, theft. Drugs are an issue of personal freedom. Harming yourself shouldn't be a crime.

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#8)
    by kdog on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 11:09:11 AM EST
    Besides, high fructose corn syrup does more harm than cannabis, for example. Where are the cries for the gov't to protect us dumb citizens from the evils of high fructose corn syrup?

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#9)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 11:59:10 AM EST
    I did an analysis of crime statistics and marijuana decriminalization a few months ago. My findings are here.

    Sorry, I meant here.

    BooHoo. You didn't fool the parents the first time around and now are crying that you can't enlist them to fool their kids? I graduated from High School in 1979. Let me tell you, kids are definitely not doing any more today than we did in school. I expect with so many new limits to their freedom they're possibly doing less. Few things make me sicker than parents my age talking about "kids today" are so much worse and how "street smart" they are etc. Puh-leez. Sex and drugs (generally done and dealt by the popular/jock set) were rampant in my JUNIOR high. Why should I think that my son will experience anything different. BTW, based on my 28 year longitudinal study, the pot hasn't gotten better and you can still go out in my town and buy a joint (and probably a lot more)on the local corner if you want to. The initial outcry over drug use was a corporate fear that workers would not be as productive if they engaged in recreational drug use. Therefore outlawing drug use was considered "Good for America" Time to take our privacy back from the Drug "Czar" and his corporate buddies (who of course, being wildly successful, can enjoy the earned privilege of exemption from proletarian policies.

    I'm generally in favor of decriminalizing drugs, and mandatory rehab as opposed to jail time. But are there really serious contention that there is zero correlation between drug use and crime? That, for example, people who need money for drugs never commit crimes to get it?

    Ugh. Bad proofreading. Should be "contentions."

    But are there really serious contention that there is zero correlation between drug use and crime? That, for example, people who need money for drugs never commit crimes to get it? Oh yeah, Leslie in CA, there are many on this list that'll make that contention or some variation of it. Usually they contend that if drugs were legal they'd be so much cheaper that users wouldn't commit crimes to get them. Price being a factor of supply and demand, they suggest that if drugs were legalized there'd be more supply and the price would drop. Except that these same people generally also contend that drug enforcement is mostly ineffective. If this is true, then supply would be little affected by legalization and prices would not change appreciably. In Amsterdam, for example, where pot is illegal but the laws are generally not enforced (or some such thing) and therefor supply apparently is in balance with demand, the street price of the drug is more or less the same as in the US. You can actually google the price of pot in across the US and in Amsterdam. Of course if it were legalized, it would also be taxed which would raise prices. As far as demand goes if drugs were legalized, your guess is as good as mine, but I suspect it wouldn't change much. Most people who want to do drugs do so w/o regard to drugs' legality so I suspect demand would not grow much.

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#15)
    by scarshapedstar on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 04:11:37 PM EST
    Leslie, How often does somebody rob a house so that they can afford a beer? And alcohol is actually addictive, as opposed to marijuana.

    SUO, the reason why cannabis is roughly the same price in Amsterdam as it is in the US has one primary factor: internationally enforced drug prohibition. Namely, through the UN's Single Convention Treaty. That is the reason why despite it being decriminalized to individually possess, the proprietors of these 'coffeeshops' are still buying from the black market and are occasionally raided by police. So long as a single shred of prohibition remains, at any level, the illicit trade will flourish. And what's so funny about all this is the kind of bashing the UN has always had from supposed conservative forces within the US, yet they stand oddly mute when this subject is mentioned; one would think they actually approve of this kind of foreign entanglement. Indeed, very disingenuously, many faux conservatives DrugWarriors will point to this treaty, and state (as if their own hypocrisy isn't glaringly evident given their strident and ever vigilant concerns over sovereignty) that they can't allow a change in the drug laws in the US because of this treaty. The ending of prohibition would knock the artificially high price supports that criminalizing has on the true cost out from under the present scale. The market that so many supposed 'conservatives' crow about would then take over, as no one would be willing to fork out the equivalent of today's prices anymore. Even the taxes would have to be adjusted to the reality of what the market would bear, just as with alcohol and tobacco. If it weren't for the death and destruction caused by both sides in the DrugWar, it would almost be humorous: drug lords are the purest, truest manifestations of capitalism at it's most efficient...yet they are castigated by governments who loudly proclaim capitalism's virtues. If that doesn't illustrate how nutso it all is, I don't know what will...

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#17)
    by kdog on Mon Mar 07, 2005 at 07:28:29 PM EST
    nutso is right nemo. Gotta run, I'm jonesing so I think I'll snatch a purse or boost some radios.

    I'm not talking about pot. I'm talking about crystal meth and crack cocaine and the like.

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#19)
    by kdog on Tue Mar 08, 2005 at 07:01:05 AM EST
    Meth, coke, heroin, alcohol....Of course these drugs contribute to crime. I just don't see how prohibiting them has decreased that crime. Did alcoholics stop beating their wives and driving drunk during prohibition? No. We need to try something new. Not to mention prohibition robs those who can use those drugs responsibly of their inalienable liberty.

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#20)
    by pigwiggle on Tue Mar 08, 2005 at 07:18:26 AM EST
    All- Lets punish the crime, not what we think the wellspring is. This way we don’t need to dumb down the law. I can do meth or coke when I choose, in my own responsible otherwise law abiding fashion, and those that cannot help but perpetrate crimes while high should not, or suffer the consequences. Fine, make it an aggravating factor even. I am overly tired of being restricted by laws that are designed to keep the dumbest among us from hurting themselves and others. Come on, punish the behavior; you know, personal responsibility. Jew- Correlating crime and anything else is extremely tricky work. Above all else the level of punishment for a given crime is most strongly correlated to a rise/fall in the rates of that crime. Did you adjust for any change in local sentencing for violent crime?

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#21)
    by kdog on Tue Mar 08, 2005 at 07:41:34 AM EST
    pig...well said, exactly what I was trying to get at.

    nemo - point taken. I'm not entirely convinced that the supply of pot is not generally in balance with demand and that therefor prices would significantly decrease if it were legalized. But what the hell do I know. kdog - have you gotten your drug test results yet?

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#23)
    by kdog on Tue Mar 08, 2005 at 09:40:56 AM EST
    In regards to the Netherlands, if I'm not mistaken it's still illegal to grow in large quantities, I believe due to the UN treaty mentioned above. And that is the reason for comparable prices. It's so confusing though I really don't get it. Sarc...Passed, thanks for the concern. Ended up turning down the job though, my current employer came back with a better offer when I went to give notice. And the prospective job, I discovered after my second interview, does a lot of business with Wal-Mart, and I really didn't want to be a part of the organization after that. To be honest, I probably would have sold out if I didn't get the better offer where I'm at. Not proud of it, but being broke can be a b*tch at times.

    Sarc...Passed, thanks for the concern. Congrats.

    Re: The Causation Factor Between Drugs and Crime (none / 0) (#25)
    by Jlvngstn on Tue Mar 08, 2005 at 11:53:15 AM EST
    Pig, Kdog, excellent points could not agree more.....