Polls: Convention Gives Boost to Kerry
Post-convention polls show a solid boost for John Kerry.
The Newsweek poll released on Saturday said Kerry, who has been running in a virtual dead heat with Republican President Bush, gained a four-point boost in the polls from the Democratic National Convention held last week in Boston.
In the poll conducted on Thursday and on Friday, Kerry received 49 percent of the vote to Bush's 42 percent and 3 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader. In early July, Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 44 percent, with Nader at 3 percent. Without Nader in the race, Kerry led Bush in the new poll by 51 percent to 45 percent. The poll of about 1,000 registered voters had a 3 percent margin of error.
Kerry told Fox News Sunday this morning he's not paying attention to the polls because they are bound to go up and down. Everyone expects Bush to gain a few points after the RNC.
Many pundits believe that the key to this election lies with 7% or so of undecided voters. That's a very small number. According to this article, only 2 out of 10 voters say they might change their preference.
We think it also will turn on getting out the vote. While we were at the convention, we spoke with a Rock the Vote staffer at a Comcast/MTV party who told us that by Wednesday, they had registered over 400,000 new voters. Their goal is one million. Obama resonates so well with youth that he will be a big key. Both John Edwards and Obama attended the Rock the Vote party in Boston and were treated like rock stars. But, P.Diddy isn't impressed with Kerry or Bush's outreach to young voters.
If the Dems can get out the youth, particularly in urban areas, and minorities and former felons, we think that will put him over the top. Of course, we don't expect the campaign to be enlightened enough to seek out the former felon vote--it would be perceived as being soft on crime--so keep your eye on the polls that show which way the youth and minorities are leaning.
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