Another Sign Obama Will Choose Bayh?

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:07:00 AM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, Evan Bayh (all tags)

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It doesn't look like Sen. Barack Obama will name his running mate after all this week. It's hard to imagine him naming someone on Wednesday when he's leaving for vacation in Hawaii on Friday. But to add to the Evan Bayh speculation, there's this, from his birthday party-fundraiser in Boston Monday night:

Introducing Obama, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry said: "I asked Barack Obama what he wanted for his birthday. He said, 'Indiana, Colorado and Virginia,' " said Kerry, referring to three potential swing states Obama hopes to win in the Nov. 4 election.

Since both Colorado Governor Bill Ritter and Sen. Ken Salazar have said they haven't been asked for documentation, that says to me Obama will pick either Kaine or Bayh. It would be crazy to pick Kaine who is personally anti-choice and has backed abortion restrictions. Between the Hillary supporters he's alienated and others who won't vote for a wishy-washy on abortion candidate, Kaine's negative impact on the ticket is obvious. That leaves Evan Bayh.

I suspect he will drop hints at his joint appearance with Bayh today in Indiana. Then his campaign can do a final round of polling before he makes a final decision.

One question: What if his final polling results indicate it has to be Hillary? [More...]

In 2004, John Kerry announced that John Edwards would be his running mate three weeks before the convention. If Obama waits until he returns from Hawaii, he'll be two weeks out from the convention.

Obama's VP staff is sitting in Chicago, chomping at the bit to know who he chooses so they can get to work.

Both Obama and McCain have made huge ad buys for the Olympics. That would be a great time to air some ads showing the complete ticket.

So, will it be tomorrow or next week? Will it be Evan Bayh? Or will Obama cool his jets for a week and ponder his final choice and the latest polling results while in Hawaii? And finally, will McCain beat Obama to the draw and name his VP candidate while Obama's on vacation, or wait until the Democratic Convention in Denver to try to steal a little of the limelight from him?

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Another Sign Obama Will Choose Bayh? | 110 comments (110 topical)

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Bayh gets bad ratings on choice (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:11:09 AM EST

too, from a couple of organizations. Is he just somewhat better than Kaine on this issue?

Yes, just somewhat (none / 0) (#2)
by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:16:18 AM EST

He'll support the platform, though. He wants to be President, after all, and he'll have to really be pro-choice in 2012 if he wants to be nominated (best case scenario for him, of course).


Why would he support the platform (5.00 / 3) (#5)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:20:48 AM EST

when the Dems support candidates for Congress like Casey to vote on SCOTUS? Or like presumptive nominees who want women to counsel with their spouses and ministers? Etc.

I prefer candidates who support my stance on the issues for solid reasons, not the platform just because it's there. Platforms can go pffft anytime. And even when they're platforms, they don't mean a thing to Dems who will do anything to win.


I agree (none / 0) (#12)
by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:25:01 AM EST

But honestly, Al Gore made the same kind of shift over the years. Bayh is a pol, not a moralist.


Ah, then there may be hope (5.00 / 1) (#26)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:33:00 AM EST

with only one moralist on the ticket.


: I think Obama is primarily a pol too. (none / 0) (#32)
by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:34:14 AM EST

: Snark? (none / 0) (#55)
by Upstart Crow on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 05:26:49 AM EST

That's a snark, right?

and garden (none / 0) (#70)
by weltec2 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:45:19 AM EST

would you explain this please. What sort of shift did Al Gore make? Of course everyone shifts. It's part of our growth process. But what are you specifically referring to?


The VP (5.00 / 3) (#58)
by Steve M on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 06:32:17 AM EST

can become President without being nominated for the office. That's why people worry about someone who is squishy on choice.


That argument applies to Kaine (none / 0) (#107)
by waldenpond on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:52:55 AM EST

also doesn't it? Bayh was suggested when Kerry ran. Bayh voted for Indiana's abortion counseling law (DU, see comment 43) and the Vitter amendment (02/08).


He won't pick Clinton (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by Valhalla on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:16:32 AM EST

The campaign is like a gambler who's down on his luck but just knows the next turn of the cards will be the big win. There really still seems to be that sort of faith floating around. I think they still haven't fully left the primaries yet, where it seemed that everything Obama touched turned to gold.

If he was 10 pts down in the polls sure, but but hovering around a tie isn't dangerous enough that he/they would think they can't pull it off without her.

I doubt McCain will announce his VP during the Dem convention -- that thing he did where he tried to give a big sort of 'kick off the GE' speech on the last day of the primaries really tanked. Even Fox gave it the thumbs down, pretty much. I wonder, if the McCain camp is thinking Bayh is a pretty sure thing, whether McCain won't go ahead and announce while Obama's on vacation and the competition for screentime/love and kisses from the MSM is lower.

Just an aside, but why is Obama going on vacation? (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:17:28 AM EST

I think it looks bad, and the campaign is happening NOW.

I agree (5.00 / 3) (#6)
by Jeralyn on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:21:13 AM EST

It's probably the worst time to take a vacation, especially with Republicans calling for Congress to reconvene to pass an energy bill. McCain has been slamming vacationing congresspersons for two days.

I suspect it's because his kids have to be back in school before Labor Day and he thought with the nomination sewn up, it would be his last chance before the election.

Seems like bad timing to me though.


Then Michelle can take the kids (5.00 / 4) (#27)
by nycstray on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:33:07 AM EST

I think they are both old enough to understand that dad has to "work". It's not just bad timing, but judgment. He's gonna have to make sacrifices as President, family vacations may be one of them.


He doesn't want either of his daughters (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by oculus on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:34:30 AM EST

running for President and claiming she was raised by a single Mom.


lol!~ funny thing is (none / 0) (#43)
by nycstray on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:44:01 AM EST

as a child, my dad worked. Mom spent a lot of time entertaining us during school down time. That included Disneyland (I was an Honorary Mouseketeer!) and the beach (SoCal living). I also remember dad time after work and on weekends. I'd say that's pretty "typical". Obama may get some "ahhh's" if he uses his kids, but reality is that these are decisions families make all the time. Most don't have his luxury though.


Meeska, mooska -- me, too.:-) (5.00 / 1) (#47)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:52:50 AM EST

And now you've got me recalling how incredibly incompetent my parents were at taking us on vacation, as we did it so rarely.

It's the stuff of infamous family stories. The sibs and I once got started telling them at a gathering, and our kids' jaws just dropped. They looked at us with new respect for our ability to survive family vacations from h*ll. The stuff you see in the movies? That's nothin'.


My brothers once neglected to tell our folks (5.00 / 3) (#49)
by oculus on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:15:39 AM EST

I hadn't climber into the back seat. My dad drove 30 minutes, then they confessed and all returned to retrieve me from a gas station somewhere in CO.


couldn't happen now.... (none / 0) (#65)
by TimNCGuy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:15:30 AM EST

you would just have to TEXT Mom and let her know you didn't finish peeing yet.....

Of course my Aunt and Uncle wouldn't stop for the kids to pee back in the 60's. My cousins were both boys and their mother just made them pee in a bottle and she emptied it out the car window as they travelled down the road. I don't think that convertible behind them was too pleased.


: Six boys in my family (5.00 / 1) (#112)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:40:54 PM EST

so it was slow going. Six overactive bladders (what is it with boys' bladders?:-) At least my folks stopped -- but it meant a lot of stops along roads to send boys to bushes.
I recall well the time that my mom freeked when she saw a lot of folks passing by, pointing and laughing. The boys all had lined up -- but not facing the bushes. Facing the road.

: um, (none / 0) (#69)
by ccpup on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:41:45 AM EST

no, we weren't.
:-)

Very bad (none / 0) (#18)
by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:28:37 AM EST

Democrats always seem to make this mistake.


Really? I was wondering (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:34:11 AM EST

how many have done this. Kerry's windsurfing, I recall. Was that several days or a week away? I don't recall other candidates doing this, though.

And certainly not twice in only a few months.


: To me it's three (5.00 / 1) (#108)
by waldenpond on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:57:12 AM EST

I think of part of his European trip as a vacation. All of the pictures? It was like watching a relatives slide show of their vacation.

: I was also thinking of Ned Lamont (none / 0) (#42)
by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:43:52 AM EST

: Hmm, iirc the Kerry windsurfing (none / 0) (#96)
by brodie on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 08:52:22 AM EST

flap occurred when he was taking a few days off while the Rs held their convention. A top aide cautioned him not to go out on his board, and JK assured her there would be no problem.
He thought he'd given the press the slip, and went out on his board, only to be caught by photogs a good distance away with their fancy high-powered cameras. Result was an immediate visual gift to the Goopers who had some fun with it at their confab and in a very predictable and effective ad.
Not a very smart pol.
Fortunately, Obama doesn't windsurf, nor does Bayh. So long as O stays away from bowling alleys, I don't think there'll be a Kerry type problem.
But I don't want him to pull a Lamont -- if he's out too long the Rs will be certain to fill the media vacuum with their propaganda and probably pull out another round of stupid juvenile negative adverting.

: windsurfing (none / 0) (#102)
by Little Fish on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:24:25 AM EST

I just looked it up, it was 4 days over Father's Day weekend.

I think it makes sense. (none / 0) (#90)
by Jerrymcl89 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 08:40:31 AM EST

If Obama really needs a few days off the trail, the first couple days of the Olympics are the time to do it. Nobody would be paying attention to him anyway.


Wouldn't it be something (5.00 / 3) (#30)
by weltec2 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:34:10 AM EST

if he were having cold feet. As Senator he got to run for Pres and he hadn't even done that much. In fact, he spent very little time actually being Senator. But now, he is very closed to being Pres. Running for this and running for that... he was good at that. But now he will actually have to setle down and BE something. Pretty scary for someone who has never actually been any one thing for very long.


Vaguely (none / 0) (#14)
by Edgar08 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:25:46 AM EST

Reminiscent of Lamont taking time off right when Lieberman was hitting him the hardest.


Dear Sen. Obama (none / 0) (#15)
by Little Fish on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:26:13 AM EST

Please don't windsurf.

Thx.

Little Fish.


what difference does it make (none / 0) (#95)
by TimNCGuy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 08:50:49 AM EST

whether it is "wind surfing" or frolicking on the beach in Hawaii? There will be pictures published. Weren't there pictures from his spring beach vacation as well? And, don't you think the repugs will be able to make good use of the pictures from both of these vacations to help gain support from the hard-working blue-collar dems who would prefer to see their politicains working to make life here better (and earn their taxpayer provide paycheck) instead of always being off on vacation, or fact-finding junkets, or clearing brush in Texas?


well (none / 0) (#103)
by Little Fish on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:25:59 AM EST

I feel this is ill-timed and linked to a video pointing out what happened the last time a dem presidential candidate took a vacation before the election. I suspect this will get a lot of play in repub-land this next week and beyond regardless of what he does.

It's just not good timing.


: add to this (none / 0) (#104)
by TimNCGuy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:33:06 AM EST

Obama's claim that he doesn't have time to hold joint town hall type meetings with McCain because tere just hasn't been the time available for it. And, that Barack can better spend his time goimg out speaking directly to the voters.
I guess he spent a lot of his recent time speaking directly to the voters in Germany, France and the UK. I won't say anything about Iraq and Afghanastan because he had to do that based on McCain's attacks. But, I don't recall McCain suggesting his resume was lacking a recent trip to Paris.
But, there are voters in Hawaii he can speak to. So, let's see how much of that he does there. Hawaii is a swing state this year right? He needs to make sure he carries the lectoral votes there, right?

Because, andgarden, events have taught (none / 0) (#99)
by prittfumes on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 08:57:40 AM EST

Obama that he can do whatever he wants whenever he wants.


Hoosier spouse says Bayh (5.00 / 1) (#46)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:49:45 AM EST

is a major proponent of expanding the death penalty, Jeralyn.

Not gonna be Clinton (5.00 / 2) (#56)
by ruffian on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 06:23:25 AM EST

Admitting he needs her to win would be the same as admitting he should not be the nominee. He'd rather lose than do that.

As time goes by, I get less and less enchanted with any of the non-Hillary alternatives except Clark.

Bayh or Clark (none / 0) (#61)
by andrys on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:00:19 AM EST

would be incentives for me, as reasonable, experienced (in governing or leading) candidates.

When Clinton said that Iran leaders planning a nuclear attack on Iran should 'remember' that we have the power to obliterate them and that though it was a terrible thing to say, this could deter them from actually dropping a nuclear bomb on Israel and making a tragic mistake -- Bayh defended her statement, rewording it in the best possible way (against its being wildly and lovingly misquoted). I remember thinking he was very good.

What Clark said about McCain's time as a prisoner not really being experience that would count toward being commander in chief (outside of basic character), he said what many of us were thinking and it just seemed common sense to me and I was glad he stuck by what he said, even if Obama didn't. The guy's got experience Obama could use in the GE but doesn't seem to be on his short list at all.


Whoops - Iran plans to attack ISRAEL (none / 0) (#62)
by andrys on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:01:10 AM EST

I guess I was thinking Iran leadership could be self-destructive :-)


When I see Bayh I do like him (none / 0) (#66)
by ruffian on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:19:54 AM EST

He seems very practical, and makes sense to me, and his credentials are good as an ex-gov and 10 yr Senator. I'm sure I would be fine with that choice. Maybe I'd get excited as they build him up during the campaign.

It just would be nice to have someone that did not have to be "sold" to people.


Clark (none / 0) (#68)
by weltec2 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:41:06 AM EST

is waaayyy too strong and way to experienced for Obama. Obama would be completely overshadowed. No, Evan Bayh is just fine by himself. What really makes me nervous is the fact that Evan is overshadowed by Susan Bayh... UC Berkeley & USC Law School. She is a very bright lady and her influence with pharmaceuticals would probably overshadow any attempt by Obama to provide affordable medication for those who need it.


Clark has virtually no (none / 0) (#98)
by brodie on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 08:56:30 AM EST

political experience, just a few months in 03-4 mostly not in the spotlight since he'd skipped IA. His remarks about McCain's military experience just weren't politically smart -- too easily spun in the McC-loving media as a personal attack on his military career. It was an unfortunate distraction from the TeamO message, a rookie mistake by Clark.

He might be a nat'l security advisor or SecDef in the 2d term for O, but not VP.


: Clark has tons (none / 0) (#113)
by oldpro on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 05:36:54 PM EST

of what I would call political experience...both in the White House and at NATO...not to mention in the US Army (there is no more political organization than the military). Those experiences also add up to political/diplomatic experience in spades.
Perhaps what you meant was that Wes Clark has very limited campaign experience, especially in running for office as a candeidate himself.
With that I would agree.
He's been on the campaign trail for the past 4 years, tho...mostly helping congressional and gubernatorial Democratic candidates in their campaigns.
I wouldn't underestimate him at this stage of his 'political' development.

: Excuse me... (none / 0) (#115)
by weltec2 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:55:23 PM EST

but when you are a General it is all political all the time. You do not get to be a General if you are not political.

I'll say it again (5.00 / 5) (#75)
by Steve M on Wed Aug 06, 2008