home

McCain-Palin Ticket Injects Culture Wars Into Election

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:12:06 PM EST
Tags: Sarah Palin, John McCain (all tags)
Share This: Digg! StumbleUpon del.icio.us reddit reddit

US News and World Report has an article on how Sen. John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate has injected the culture wars into the election, positing that it may cost him in Independent votes.

McCain's senior advisers have themselves admitted that Palin was picked to ensure a strong conservative turnout in such decisive battleground states as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. She should also shore up traditionally Republican western states, including Colorado, which has shown signs of going Democratic. But if Palin draws too much attention to issues such as abortion, if the culture war heats up and comes to dominate discussion, there is a danger that she could weaken McCain's appeal not only to moderates within his own party but also to independents and conservative Democrats—in short, to the vast slice of American voters that decides national elections.

< Former NY Mayor Ed Koch Endorses Obama, Says Palin "Scary" | Open Thread: Bridges to Babylon >

  • Premium Ads

  • Blog Ads

  • Contribute To TalkLeft

    donate to TalkLeft


    • Display: Sort:
    McCain-Palin Ticket Injects Culture Wars Into Election | 76 comments (76 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment

    I would be very interested (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by Steve M on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:30:44 PM EST
    to find out what Sarah Palin had to say about the Terri Schiavo debacle at the time.

    the problem with this 'get an old quote' (none / 0) (#20)
    by fairleft on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:53:39 PM EST
    approach is that she has excellent likeability, so bringing up old stuff (even when it reflects her current positions) won't 'get over' very well, especially on issues that are not well-remembered it'll be overwhelmed by her current likeability. What's needed is for her to say out-of-the-mainstream right-wing stuff now, or in the debate with Biden. IMHO.

    Parent
    The culture wars were already (5.00 / 5) (#9)
    by tootired on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:36:33 PM EST
    waging before McCain chose Palin. The "bitter, clinging to Bibles and guns" rubes versus the latte liberals. The coastal elites vs. the rustbucket, hardworking, blue collar workers. Just how big is Appalachia? The question is how will Palin's selection affect these culture wars? Will her conservative positions on some important issues turn some of the more moderate voters off or will they identify so much with the hockey mom that they vote for her? "Hicks and Chicks Together Again?" Will women vote issues or gender identity? I think it's too soon to tell although the current polls don't look good for Obama.

    Interesting culture wars (none / 0) (#42)
    by Bulging Bracket on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:40:40 PM EST
    I really don't know what to make of this. Not exactly the most feminist thing in the world, that's for sure.

    Parent
    How about this one: (none / 0) (#47)
    by magesuew on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:10:05 PM EST
    Obama: 'Lipstick on a pig'

    Amie Parnes reports from Lebanon, VA:

        Obama poked fun of McCain and Palin's new "change" mantra.

        "You can put lipstick on a pig," he said as the crowd cheered. "It's still a pig."

        "You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change. It's still gonna stink."

        "We've had enough of the same old thing."

    The crowd apparently took the "lipstick" line as a reference to Palin, who described the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull in a single word: "lipstick."
    ========

    I don't know. This is not the way to win women's votes.

    Parent

    Wasn't there a "fish" comment... (none / 0) (#51)
    by EL seattle on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:16:08 PM EST
    a few elections ago that went over pretty poorly?

    Parent
    Was the "old fish" (none / 0) (#53)
    by mg7505 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:18:39 PM EST
    supposed to be McCain? If so, maybe not the way to win elderly folks' votes either.

    I sincerely hope those statements by Obama were unscripted gaffes.

    Parent

    I hope to God (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by magesuew on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:21:22 PM EST
    The "fish" comment wasn't some extremely disgusting reference to a woman. If it is, I'm sorry, I won't be voting for Obama, no matter what his policies are. The "pig" comment is bad enough. This is sexist HATE speech, pure and simple.

    Parent
    Remember (none / 0) (#56)
    by WS on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:25:56 PM EST
    when us Hillary supporters complained that the Obama campaign/surrogates were twisting comments to imply racism?    

    This is the same thing but with "sexism."  

    Parent

    To clarify some more (none / 0) (#57)
    by WS on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:27:42 PM EST
    that I don't think people should twist his comment to imply sexism.  Its bad when people use racism as a character destroying weapon and the same goes with sexism.    

    Parent
    reading into things too much (none / 0) (#61)
    by indiependy on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:38:53 PM EST
    People are trying to read WAY too much into what Obama said. It's a very common turn of phrase and the reaction to it is based on nothing other than a conservative reporters opinion.

    When Hillary said of Gandhi "He ran a gas station down in St. Louis" nobody here thought she was trying to denigrate Gandhi or people of Indian descent. And that was a joke attempt, not even a common turn of phrase.

    You know what else isn't a common turn of phrase?
    "Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because Janet Reno is her father." - John McCain at a Republican Senate fundraiser.

    Parent

    Excellent (none / 0) (#66)
    by glanton on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 07:34:17 PM EST
    Lost on many here.  But still excellent.

    Parent
    Maybe. Maybe not. (none / 0) (#71)
    by blcc on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 08:41:59 PM EST
    I'm not sure it matters - it only matters what electorate PERCEIVES.  

    Obama's supposedly a hoops fan, so he should understand this old warning about relying too heavily on 3-point plays:

    Live by the victim card? = DIE by the victim card!

    Good thing Obama hasn't done anything to heighten everyone's victim-card sensitivities to a paranoid level!

    Oh, wait...

    Parent

    Oh, really? (none / 0) (#59)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:33:43 PM EST
    "This is not the way to win women's votes."

    Then perhaps you approve of this way to a woman's heart and ballot:

    The Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman (Wasilla, AK) | May 22, 2000
    Knowles signs sexual assault bill - "Gov. Tony Knowles recently signed legislation protecting victims of sexual assault from being billed for tests to collect evidence of the crime, but one local police chief said the new law will further burden taxpayers. ... While the Alaska State Troopers and most municipal police agencies have covered the cost of exams, which cost between $300 to $1,200 apiece, the Wasilla police department does charge the victims of sexual assault for the tests."

    Please note the date of the article. Sarah Palin was Wasilla's mayor from 1996 until 2002.

    Parent

    That's an old cliche (none / 0) (#60)
    by ChuckieTomato on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:35:14 PM EST
    I don't think he meant any thing sexist by it.

    Parent
    oh please (none / 0) (#62)
    by magesuew on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:44:59 PM EST
    You are either not giving Obama much credit for intelligence or you are not being honest. The crowd certainly knew what he was talking about.

    This kind of thing angered me when he did it to Hillary. I don't intend to put up with it against another woman, even if I disagree with her.

    Really, I'm about to give up on this election and just wait for Obama to blow it and for Hillary to win in a walk in '12, when the country will be GOOD and SICK of Republicans, and we have a decent candidate. I don't blame Hillary for not supporting him whole-heartedly and refusing to be his "attack dog" against another woman, which also seems demeaning.

    Good for Hillary, I say. What has Obama done for her? Nothing.

    Parent

    Hey I'm not voting for either one (none / 0) (#63)
    by ChuckieTomato on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:51:54 PM EST
    But I call it like I see it. If I had a nickel for every time I've heard that cliche I'd be at least a 100 dollars richer.

    Parent
    it is a very common expression (5.00 / 1) (#69)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 08:31:45 PM EST
    but you can't honestly believe it just happened to pop into his head when Palin used the lipstick line last week in her speech like it was just a coincidence. He meant it just like he meant it when he did the now famous "periodically down" statemen against Clinton.

    Parent
    watch the video (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by magesuew on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:00:35 PM EST
    He milks it for comic timing, he grins it up when the crowd gets it. I seriously think the guy has a serious problem with women. It's like flipping Hillary off. He can't help himself, even when it can hurt him politically. Either he is too dumb to know how it would play, or he did it on purpose. There is no middle ground. Not when the entire blogosphere is burning up over this. AND the phrase was used earlier in the day by Biden. You telling me that's a coincidence? After her very high-profile joke in her speech?

    I don't know if it's because his dad left him at an early age, what, but Obama can't handle criticism from women, it makes him act in a foolish way that is damaging to his own electoral hopes, but he must get the snide dig in. He did it repeatedly to Hillary. "She's likable enough"- Flipping her off. Allowing his surrogates to savage Hillary and refusing to rein them in.

    Well, I hope he's smug and proud of himself for that prickish comment "lipstick on a pig". It may be the single last straw that loses him the election. This is going to be a 3 day wonder at the least, and he can't afford to lose that time from his message. And he brought it on himself. Do you think McCain could use the phrase "In a coon's age" or "call a spade a spade" and not ignite a firestorm? I don't care if it IS an old saying.

    This is BIG, I'm telling you. When Drudge headlines something, the MSM picks it up. And they have.

    Parent

    The War of Words (none / 0) (#74)
    by liberalone on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:40:08 PM EST
    Yes, some old sayings have roots in racism, sexism, homophobia, xenophobia, and any other -ism and -phobia you can imagine.  I have not listened to the clip of the comment, nor will I, as this idea that Obama is a sexist is getting out of hand.

    1.  If you saw no problem with Palin directly comparing women to dogs, I see no reason to cry foul on an old cliche which did not directly reference women at all.

    2.  I doubt that Michelle Obama would marry and condone a sexist man talking down to women.  Or is Michelle as dumb as Barack?  Perhaps everyone who disagrees with this constant mantra of sexism is dumb? Maybe we are all misogynists?

    3.  Obama has apologized for any and every perceived slight to anyone (something NO OTHER POLITICIAN has ever been asked to do).  He has apologized for things he has said and done, statements by others and campaign workers, and telephoned folks who MIGHT have been insulted (sweetie gate).  Are any of us, let alone any other pol, as willing to take responsibility for any perceived offenses?

    So, unless we are all ready to apologize and acknowledge the err of our ways (any and every perceived slight), I would encourage folks to look for meaning rather than reasons to feel offended.

    Parent
    Well then if it is completely innocent (none / 0) (#65)
    by magesuew on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 07:27:08 PM EST
    Then Obama is a complete moron. It's frontpaged on Drudge. Do you know how this is going to be played? And you're saying Obama had no idea that taking the most notable and remembered line from Palin's speech and making a play on it wouldn't look like calling her a pig?

    If that's true, he deserves to lose. This is a bonehead move. He had better apologize as quickly as possible. The problem is, apparently they said it, in different forms, several times today.

    It's calculated, deal with it.

    I just don't know anymore. I was mad about the veiled references to Hillary. Now they are doing it to a Republican woman, so I'm supposed to be ok with it. Well, I'm not a hypocrite. This is bull.

    Parent

    Apologize, My Foot (none / 0) (#77)
    by daring grace on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:21:09 AM EST
    Call this cynical nonsense out for what it is: a juvenile strategy to avoid debating issues and keep this campaign at a schoolyard level of discourse.

    So now Palin owns the word, the very idea of lipstick. Presumably, pit bulls are hers too and hockey and motherhood. What else? God--the true one that is.

    McCain/Palin could have taken the high road and laughed this off and mocked the idea that this meant anything, thus assuring they would both look better than Obama (because some would still, like you, see malice in his intentions).

    Instead they play the pseudo victim card for all it's worth. They may further stoke their base and further repel Obama supporters but anyone truly not sure about their ticket is not coming running on the basis of this Rove-ian creepiness. Not with all the real problems and issues they're ignoring to keep this alive another news cycle.

    Parent

    If Palin ... (5.00 / 4) (#10)
    by Alvord on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:38:03 PM EST
    ... doesn't come across as scary in interviews or in the debate but instead appears reasonable her record, which is more nuanced than many in the liberal blogs are letting on, will not work against her with independents.

    Get to know her (none / 0) (#40)
    by indiependy on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:29:36 PM EST
    Hopefully the public will be able to see her do something other than read a speech off a teleprompter and actually answer some questions on issues. Then maybe independent voters will be able to see:

    Palin has repeatedly stated that she is against abortion unless a doctor determined that a mother's life would end due to the pregnancy, even if due to rape or incest.

    When asked, "in relationship to families, what are your top 3 priorities if elected governor" said #2 was "Preserving the definition of "marriage" as defined in our constitution"

    As Governor failed to "get behind the most significant piece of health legislation offered -- a proposal to ensure that all residents have health insurance, without disrupting the coverage that many Alaskans already have."

    Says of global warming "I'm not one though who would attribute it to being man-made."

    Has no problem appointing people who've been formally accused and reprimanded for sexual harassment to top staff positions.

    Parent

    We also need to ask (none / 0) (#58)
    by mg7505 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:31:30 PM EST
    whether the Independents in this election are similar to the Independents in previous elections. I know that's partially a rephrasing of the "which way will Hillary's voters go?" argument -- but I'm talking about the other folks who may have become Independents before the Democratic primaries. Could there be disaffected conservatives out there? My anecdotal experience says yes -- folks who don't approve of Bush's spending us into debt, and in some cases the Iraq war. Palin could be McCain's effort to get those disaffected conservatives back on the bandwagon (plus of course firing up the loyal base).

    Honestly though it's tough to still be an Independent in the polarized political climate nowadays. Maybe Independents are more disillusioned with the political process rather than its specific goals or outcomes. In that case McCain's reputation as a "bipartisan" "maverick" and Palin's as someone who "took on the Republican party" etc may help them. But who's to say which lies people will believe and which ones they won't?

    Parent

    You need to give more credit to working class (none / 0) (#70)
    by Christy1947 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 08:41:58 PM EST
    women. They are looking at this from their own point of view, and may not come back at you on an internet site, but they are not looking at Palin as the first and only, but as one, at this point, with an existing and contrasting model whose own campaign is not yet cool.  And through lenses of appropriateness which are as important to them as those we use on sites like this. I am hearing a lot more resistance to some of what is coming out about her from non coastal elite locations, not on the same bases as coastal elites might pick.

    Their reaction to the pushing of the kids into the campaign is not quite the same as those who usually post here, but it has real power and not necessarily in a direction the RNC may like either. And today's release of expense information that Mrs. Palin got Forty Grand in expenses for taking kids to official business with her  is going to have an effect of its own, as well as eliminating the grounds for not commenting by coastal elites of the now apparently longstanding political use of her children.

    Parent

    I was a Dem... (none / 0) (#75)
    by kredwyn on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 11:39:14 PM EST
    and a yellow dog too (around 18+ years). The FISA vote convinced me to go over to the "unaffiliated" side.

    Parent
    Populism Populism Populism (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by WS on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:41:18 PM EST
    He needs to be proud of his health care plan (not better than Hillary's but a good first step), rolling back the Bush tax cuts for the rich to help pay for the deficit and new programs, SCHIP, the fair pay legislation, Prescription drug importation, contrasting his energy plan to McCain's, releasing oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve and other stuff in the Democratic platform.  He needs to start explaining what he plans to do with the Presidency and how he's going to make average people's lives better.  

    Populism!  They need to look back at what Gore did and Hillary too but Obama can't do the fighter thing because that's Hillary's.  Gore's "people vs. the powerful" should be his template.        
     

    Keyword is Passion (5.00 / 4) (#18)
    by Jonathan3 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:50:33 PM EST
    He needs to show that he has a stake in the policies that he wants to implement. People will vote for him if they feel that he believes in his own policies. Not crap like "I may keep the Bush tax cuts in a recession" or "drilling might be OK" or "the surge was a great success" (paraphrases).

    Parent
    Why do you think Obama has (none / 0) (#29)
    by tootired on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:01:51 PM EST
    such a hard time expressing passion on the campaign trail? I listen to his speeches, but I never hear passion. I have no idea what is really important to him as a candidate. When he smiles at his kids or Michelle, I know they matter a great deal to him, and he has tremendous pride in his family. But I have no idea why he wants to be president, or what issue matters most to him. I wish he'd step out of the Adlai Stevenson suit and give us a clue of who the real Obama is.

    Parent
    Palin isn't pushing the culture war (5.00 / 6) (#25)
    by myiq2xu on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:58:55 PM EST
    It's the Democrats chanting "Roe, Roe, Roe your boat."

    no (none / 0) (#32)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:02:39 PM EST
    The selection of Palin is very much about the culture war.

    Palin doesnt have to say it.

    Parent

    Of course not (none / 0) (#44)
    by Faust on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:01:06 PM EST
    she's not saying anything to anyone. No one is allowed to interview her. Though I'm sure good old Charlie Gibson will get the important information we need. You don't get any more hard hitting than Charlie Gibson.

    If I were Palin I would most definitely not push culture wars at this time. You do that after you get in office.

    Parent

    Interesting (none / 0) (#49)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:14:13 PM EST
    If this is true could you tell me what the reference in McCain's speech to the "Culture of Life" was about, is it some sort of healthy living thing? I mean because you seem pretty sure its not abortion.

    Parent
    Abortion is not a dealbreaker... (5.00 / 3) (#45)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:04:49 PM EST
    ...for many Dems and independents. According to Gallup, in fact, over 1/3 of women who self-identify as Democratic, as well as 40 percent of women who self-identify as independent, call themselves "pro-life."

    As a pro-choice Democrat, I wish the party would move away from its assumption that screaming Roe in a crowded theater is enough to get women to support the Democratic ticket. Healthcare, college tuition, energy and general cost-of-living issues (in other words, economic populism) are women's issues, as well as men's--and far more effective (in my opinion) in making the case for supporting the party than clinging to the assumption that every woman has abortion has her no. 1 issue of importance.

    Oh the irony! (5.00 / 2) (#50)
    by nycstray on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:16:07 PM EST
    Those pesky Invisible Women are suddenly the talk of the town, lol!~

    Now they want to know what white women are thinking . . . .  lol!~

    Parent

    Addendum (none / 0) (#52)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:17:18 PM EST
    And if the Dems do insist on focusing on an abortion/cultural wars frame, I hope the following words, said by the bishop who led the prayer service at the beginning of the Democratic National Convention this year, don't come back to haunt them:

    He spoke of what he called "the moral and spiritual pain" felt by many people because of what he termed "disregard for the lives of the unborn."


    Parent
    Seems to me Obama supporters (5.00 / 2) (#64)
    by Roz on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:59:58 PM EST
    are on the wrong side of the culture war, so far.

    McCain's challenge is to keep Republican supporters and the Christian right from torpedoing his campaign the way Obama supporters and liberal media are undermining his.

    If he can keep those dogs at bay, I think he wins.

    If Obama, surrogates, supporters, and friends in the media keep going berserk on Palin, I think he wins.

    Unfortunately, polls suggest the contrary (none / 0) (#1)
    by Jonathan3 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:16:31 PM EST
    with Independent voters.  Independent voters aren't libertarian, they're mostly social conservatives who dislike both Bush and Pelosi/Dean/Reid.

    Yes. (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Prabhata on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:22:59 PM EST
    The problem with Obama is not the issues, but the candidate.  FISA and the roll call at the DNC demonstrated to the world that Obama was Pelosi's candidate.  Many voters were on the fence until the GOP convention, and now are supporting McCain. The key are women voters.  Hillary must be shaking her head.

    Parent
    Pelosi is an albatross for Obama among I's (5.00 / 4) (#11)
    by Jonathan3 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:40:03 PM EST
    The more the Republicans (and Democrats) tie Obama to the Pelosi gang (drilling, "save the planet/world", anti-Hillary roll call, etc), the less the Independents will want to side with Obama. People who are appreciative of Pelosi are already solidly in the Democratic column.

    Obama's Bush-McCain/McSame meme while initially strong is getting a little long in the tooth because of the Palin pick. It was a ballsy thing to do for McCain, and I believe cemented many Americans of McCain's brand (deserved or not) of being a Maverick(tm).

    In the end I think, Independents feel that McCain is less like Bush as Obama is like Pelosi.  

    Parent

    Bingo! (none / 0) (#15)
    by mogal on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:43:21 PM EST


    Parent
    I don't think all Democratic or (none / 0) (#21)
    by litigatormom on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:54:06 PM EST
    Independent voters are as focused on Nancy Pelosi as we are.

    And not all independents are social conservatives.  Most of the independents I know (granted I am in NYC) are fiscal conservatives (well-off people who like low taxes and less regulation of corporations) but are socially liberal or moderate. Pro-choice, pro-stem cell, etc.

    Many if not most of the folks in that category whom I know are now questioning the old GOP bromide that tax cuts and less regulation are the solution to whatever ails the economy. They may not themselves be out of work or facing foreclosure, but they know that if the middle and working classes continue to have their standards of living deteriorate, corporations are not going to be able to sell as much of their goods and services. They know we can't continue to sell our childrens' futures to the Chinese with our ever-expanding deficit.

    Obama needs to shred the Maverick Meme, and affirmatively show that HE knows what to do about the economy, rather than blindly follow the old GOP mantras about tax cuts and less regulation (which brought us the subprime crisis, among others). It's not just "more of the same." He has to talk about -- as Bill Clinton did brilliantly in Denver -- WHY the standard GOP policies, which McCain has embraced, don't and won't work.

    Parent

    Alas. . . (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:00:27 PM EST
    the Democrats (specifically including New York Democrats) share an equal amount of blame for the deregulatory fiasco of the last decade and a half.

    Obama should simultaneously stress his ability to pragmatically handle the economy in a centrist fashion while pointing out that McCain is nothing but the hand maiden of the far right -- whose interests are served, if anything, but economic apocalypse.

    Do you want someone running the economy who allowed James Dobson to choose his VP?

    I was in an office with a two time Bush Republican voters (UES) the other day and heard what he had to say about the Palin pick in relation to economic issues.  I can't repeat it here (every second word started with F) but let's just say "amateur hour" was far and away the nicest thing he said.

    Parent

    ha (none / 0) (#23)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:57:55 PM EST
    Yeah, nancy pelosi sounds like a demon to right-wing ears because they listen to talk-radio sewing circles.  I doubt the dog whistle sounds the same to other groups.

    Parent
    Yeah I agree (none / 0) (#31)
    by Jonathan3 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:02:32 PM EST
    Lots of different Independents and it kind of depends on the region you are in too.  But to assume as US News did that they are all libertarian (and against culture wars) is rather faulty logic.  A lot of the independents in my area are church-going, family-oriented people who are just fed up with the last 8 years of Bush mismanagement AND the last 2 years of do-nothing Democratic congress.

    Parent
    Maybe not focused on Pelosi (none / 0) (#54)
    by nycstray on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:20:56 PM EST
    But there's a McCain ad out tying Obama to all his "liberal" DC buddies. Don't remember if it had Nanc in it. I'm thinking it was a national buy as I caught it during the news.

    Parent
    BINGO!!! (none / 0) (#48)
    by Badtypist on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:13:07 PM EST
    I have been trying to put my finger on it, and you did. Thank you!

    Parent
    Gallup has McCain up 15% among independents.. (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by mogal on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:32:05 PM EST
    ..since the convention, I'm notsurprised we were at a party the night after the convention and it was clear what was happening from the converstion. The Obama male supporters were ever upset.  "They wanted to win and he let his ego get in the way."

    Parent
    don't over rely on polls (3.00 / 0) (#17)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:46:27 PM EST
    especially given new reports that they have been oversampling Republicans.

    Parent
    Be no less wary. . . (5.00 / 2) (#22)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:54:57 PM EST
    of oversampling claims -- the first haven of true-believers who don't like the way the polls are moving.  This is frequently followed by the "they don't poll cell phones" claim.

    [Not to suggest Jeralyn falls into the true-believe category, but I don't place any particular credence in the source of that link).

    There has been a movement in self-identification away from the Republicans over the last several years -- a movement that was at least temporarily reversed by the Republican convention.

    Parent

    the source of that quote (3.00 / 0) (#24)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:58:14 PM EST
    is a reporter. I know he parses data well because I spoke with him at length over PC Cronin's caucus-primary numbers report we published months ago. He had broken down every number.

    You may not like who he writes for, but that's not a reflection on his skills. Please show where he's wrong if you think he is rather than attack who he writes for.

    Parent

    I wasn't referring. . . (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:07:37 PM EST
    the Huffington Post (about which I know little) but the fact that I know nothing about the author's knowledge of polling.

    To me, all blog posts claiming that the polls don't say what they say are suspect.  They arrive like clockwork when the polls start going agaisnt you.

    I do know enough about polling to know:

    1. Self-identification as a polling question is not related to voter registration.

    2. Self-identification is extremely volatile.  It goes up and down with major political events.

    It's only natural to see a lot of folks who the week before might not have said "I consider myself closer to the Republican Party" saying it now, after the convention.  Will they say it a week from now?  I don't know.

    But seeing a bump in self-identified Republicans after a rousing party convention is not unexpected.  And if the polling firms adjusted for that, they'd be giving an unfair advantage in the poll to the Democrats.

    Parent

    All sorts of problems (none / 0) (#37)
    by indiependy on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:22:17 PM EST
    If you look at the internals of the polls you'll see there's no shortage of inconsistencies. A recent national poll took 32% from the south and low 20% for the east and west coasts. Lots of the new state polls have had McCain winning anywhere from 14-18% of the black vote. Sorry but there's no way those can be accurate.

    Anyone who's been on this blog through the primaries should be well aware of how terrible polling can be. Let's not forget New Hampshire and California.

    Parent

    Oversampling Republicans, (5.00 / 3) (#30)
    by tree on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:02:12 PM EST
    even if its happening, would NOT affect vote data for INDEPENDENTS, who are by definition NOT REPUBLICANS.

    Parent
    Thank you for the good link, interesting info. (none / 0) (#19)
    by mogal on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:52:49 PM EST


    Parent
    Jeralyn (none / 0) (#36)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:21:23 PM EST
    I bought into this theory in 2004. Are the polls infallible? No, but they are what they are and any bad poll should be taken as a warning sign that there needs to be a course correction.

    Parent
    polls (through today) (2.00 / 0) (#14)
    by wystler on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:43:00 PM EST
    ... suggest little more than the perfunctory GOP convention bounce. Common wisdom says max bounce is tuesday following. Curious that it just happens to be today.

    Parent
    The polls through today suggest that McCain (5.00 / 0) (#43)
    by tigercourse on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:44:43 PM EST
    has gained alot of ground. In Ohio, he's up big. In Michigan, he's 1 point down. In Penn, 2 points. In Florida, 5 points up. In NC, 20 points. He's only down 3 points in Colorado. This bounce can and probably will fade somewhat. But it's nothing to ignore.

    Parent
    It's early. (none / 0) (#2)
    by 1980Ford on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:18:11 PM EST
    Only a bounce right now.

    Parent
    It's not a bounce (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by Prabhata on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:32:33 PM EST
    It's a structural change.  Undecideds have decided and some "neither" have moved to McCain. Obama and McCain could not make the sale to these undecideds, and now with Palin the sale has been made. The media and Republicans were in shock (Democrats too, but that was not important) with his VP choice.  It was a gambit that paid off.

    The VP choice demonstrated McCain's political instinct.

    Parent

    It might be a bounce. (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Southsider on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:42:07 PM EST
    Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  We're still only a few short days out from the convention.  The bounce was real - very real.  The possible threat of a major demographic shift is also real.  But it is far too early to say that any such realignment has taken place.

    Apparently the NBC/WSJ poll coming out tonight has it 46-45 Obama +1, which is superficially good news (although honestly it's just as likely to be a margin of error).  I'll be mighty interested in seeing the internal breakdowns of that poll.

    Parent

    well (none / 0) (#26)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:00:14 PM EST
    Bush had a bigger bounce in 04 and couldnt keep it intact.  Obama has less ground to make up than Kerry did.

    Parent
    "It's hard work, the work is hard" (none / 0) (#33)
    by Jonathan3 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:06:04 PM EST
    Except, McCain and Palin are better debaters than Bush.

    Parent
    and.. (none / 0) (#35)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:16:37 PM EST
    And Obama seems better than Kerry.

    Parent
    No (5.00 / 2) (#38)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:23:57 PM EST
    Obama is worse than Kerry in a debate. Kerry did really well in the debates in 2004. The ones Obama has been in where he was actually asked questions have been terrible.

    Parent
    well (1.00 / 1) (#46)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:04:52 PM EST
    Well, thanks for your input.  Obviously we disagree.

    Sort of invasion of the body snatchers around here.  

    Parent

    Amen to that (1.00 / 1) (#67)
    by glanton on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 07:42:10 PM EST
    But, stay with this blog.  There was a time before the invasion and there will be a time after, when civil liberties and social justice will return to priority status among commenters.

    Especially in the event that McCain wins, there will be a few weeks maybe of righteous "told you so's" and even some gloating among them, but then they will disperse.

    You see how shameless they are, conneticut yankee.  Now suddenly Kerry was great in the debates.  next thing you know they'll be remembering how aggressively he fought back against the Swiftboating.  

     

    Parent

    Obama campaign finally has a good ad (none / 0) (#4)
    by MyLeftMind on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:29:29 PM EST
    calling McCain & Palin, well, liars.  It also ties them very well to failed repub policies:

    More of the same.

    I don't think it's a good ad (4.25 / 4) (#8)
    by Prabhata on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:36:15 PM EST
    It seems like whining.  I agree that McCain should do more for the vets, but I don't like the ad.

    Parent
    prabata (none / 0) (#16)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:43:45 PM EST
    comments opposing the Democratic ticket a(as evidenced by every comment lamming Obama no matter what the issue) are limited to four a day. You are way over limit.

    Parent
    yeah (none / 0) (#28)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:01:16 PM EST
    Its a good ad.

    Parent
    Too long to be an ad ;) (none / 0) (#39)
    by nycstray on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:28:42 PM EST
    is that the right link? I see it as more of an effort to get McCain to sign the GI bill vs McCain/Palin liars. I though McCain had his own GI bill?

    Parent
    I think you've got that link wrong ... (none / 0) (#41)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 05:31:35 PM EST
    it's neither new, nor an ad.  Nor is it put out by Obama.

    That's a little film about the new GI Bill.

    Think you need to fix that link.

    Parent

    Here's ... (none / 0) (#68)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 08:05:27 PM EST
    the ad the original poster meant to link to:

    More of the Same.

    Parent

    As if Culture Wars were something new (none / 0) (#76)
    by SeeEmDee on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:08:49 AM EST
    And one of the most invisible (but paradoxically, also the biggest) targets of them also happens to be the one demographic in America, numbering in the scores of millions, that crosses nearly all lines of demarcation: responsible cannabis users. Such have been on the short, sharp and sh*tty end of the Gub'mint stick for decades. A vast bloc of disaffected voters for whom there has been no real difference in parties, save in the degree to which one party oppresses them more than another.

    You want to talk about 'change'? Fine. Then let Mr. Obama talk about changing the stupid, idiotic drug laws that savage minorities and politically emasculate them courtesy of the felony drug law convictions that stripped them of voting rights (and led in no small part to the Election 2000 fiasco which saddled us with Georgie the Lesser and his goons). The dictatorial Apollonian minority (overwhelmingly White, wealthy and politically connected) of this country has used the drug laws to socially and politically neutralize any threats to its' suzerainty...as represented by the base of the Democratic Party.

    Worse still, the Democratic Party has traditionally aided and abetted in it's own diminution by shamelessly pandering to anti-drug hysteria courtesy of ratcheting up drug law offense penalties in an attempt to look 'tough' and ward off charges of being 'soft on crime'.

    Hell yeah, there are 'Culture Wars'...and the largest bloc of veterans of those wars are scarred from whips held by both Democrat and Republican alike. And they are understandably cynical about all this 'hootin' & hollerin' about 'change'.

    McCain-Palin Ticket Injects Culture Wars Into Election | 76 comments (76 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment