N.C. Poll: Obama Takes Lead, Especially Among Independents

Public Policy Polling has a new North Carolina poll out. It's Obama 47, McCain 45 and Bob Barr 2. Full poll results are here.

Independents are moving toward Obama in droves. Where last week he had a 42-39 advantage with them, now he is up 48-37. He also now receives 36% of the white vote, up from 33%. He will likely need 35-38% in that demographic to win the state, depending on how high turnout from black voters is.

Big Tent Democrat reported on other polls earlier today.

< Obama Releases Statement on Bail Out Bill | Time For The Dem Bailout Bill >
  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft

  • Display: Sort:
    Wishful thinking about these NC polls (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by stefystef on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:54:36 PM EST
    Perhaps they are polling heavy in the Research Triangle Area of NC (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) where there are plenty of transplants- northerners and so-called scientist and intellectuals who are more liberal than the indigenous people.

    My ancestry is North Carolina (slave ship stopped there and dropped my ancestors off), so I've been in and around North Carolina all my life.  While it is not a "traditional" southern state, like Georgia or Alabama, it has a very VERY strong conservative and religious population (Home of Bill Graham and Andy Griffith).

    So while so many Obama followers would love to see these polls as a bellwether to the future of North Carolina, I see the religious right, the conservative rural and suburban voters outside of the main city centers (and African American centers), coming out for McCain.  Not because they like John, but they don't want Obama.  


    He's leading or tied (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by bluegal on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 06:02:08 PM EST
    all over the state.

    Try again with the Obama is doomed tripe.


    Harvey (none / 0) (#19)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:35:09 PM EST
    Gant used to poll like that too. Don't get your hopes up on NC.

    Hmm (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by lilburro on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:56:39 PM EST
    This is good news.  2 pts is hardly safe though.  Obama probably has room for improvement in the bloc of voters who supported Hillary.  In my area of NC there are a lot of older white women who were staunch Hillary supporters.  Solidfy them and do great GOTV and maybe NC is his.  

    More poll results (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by scribe on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 05:25:23 PM EST
    showing growing some Obama leads.  Per Rasmussen/Fox

    In Pennsylvania, Obama now leads by eight percentage points, 50% to 42%.

    In Virginia, it's Obama 50% and McCain 47%.

    The candidates are within a single point of each other in Colorado (Obama 49%, McCain 48%) (bouncing around within the MoE), Florida (Obama 47%, McCain 47%) (slow movement within MoE toward Obama), and Ohio (McCain 48% Obama 47%)(same).

    As far as I can recall, Ras has been pretty consistently leaning toward McCain, so this would seem a favorable development.

    PDS - do you have it? (2.33 / 3) (#5)
    by happypeople on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:51:09 PM EST
    Are you a left wing radical nut?  If you suffer from any of the following, check thyself into mental health counseling immediately before you destroy the country my grandfather, father, husband, brother-in-law, and many friends have fought and are still fighting for today:

    1.  PDS - Palin Derangement Syndrome  Symptoms: Disliking someone so much because they differ in politcal philopsophy from you that you foam at the mouth and find yourself shaking every time a small town woman in a suit with glasses comes into view.

    2.  CNNitis - A disorder characterized by an inability to realize that CNN's glory days ended at the conclusion of the FIRST Gulf War.

    3.  MSNBC-cret lovers with Obama Syndrome - Symptoms: Are you STILL watching MSNBC or NBC?  Well, then, you have it. That's easy enough.

    Just call 1-800-LIB-ANON for help.

    p.s. I'm rubber, you're glue, your craziness bounces off me and sticks to you!!!  So, let it rip.  I'm gonna go watch FOX News where I get to see BOTH sides of the story and keep making up my own mind.

    Huh? (none / 0) (#14)
    by Pegasus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 05:45:07 PM EST
    I think your first mistake was considering yourself clever enough to hurt anybody's feelings.

    Shhhh... (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by TomStewart on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 06:01:23 PM EST
    keep it down, maybe he'll go away...

    That would be huge (none / 0) (#1)
    by litigatormom on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:22:12 PM EST
    But I still want Obama to get Pennsylvania and either Ohio or Florida.

    I'm feeling better about PA (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:31:42 PM EST
    And I think Virginia and Colorado are the key states. Florida and Ohio are gravy (and pretty close right now).

    I don't think VA is in the bag (none / 0) (#8)
    by litigatormom on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 05:10:22 PM EST
    I don't think we should be treating OH or PA like gravy.

    PA is essential (none / 0) (#18)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 06:54:04 PM EST
    I agree. But VA is more likely than OH and FL IMO.

    I really feel like there's a broad. . . (none / 0) (#20)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 07:48:17 AM EST
    tranch of states that are moving together at present -- including Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and, to a lesser extent, Pennsylvania.  I think Obama is (and should be) pursuing a strategy that will move all those states to see how many he can move across the goal line by November.

    Kinda wacky. (none / 0) (#3)
    by Pegasus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:33:33 PM EST
    But kinda not, I guess.  NC, like Indiana, Montana, and maybe even Florida, is more of a "blowout bellwether" in my opinion.  And the EC blowout is looking increasingly plausible, even if not probable.

    Anyway, if Obama wins NC, we can start celebrating early on election night.

    Indies (none / 0) (#4)
    by bjorn on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:33:37 PM EST
    will continue to move toward Obama, imo.  John McCain's erratic and irresponsible behavior has scared them off.  I used to respect McCain. Now I don't even know who he is or what he stands for.  I expect to see more movement to Obama and for the first time I am believing he can win VA, maybe NC, and that PA and FL will go his way as well.

    i wouldn't go betting (none / 0) (#10)
    by cpinva on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 05:25:49 PM EST
    the rent money on either NC or VA just yet. both have a very large military population (active & retired), primarily in the eastern part of both states. this group historically is very conservative, and tends to vote republican.

    unless sen. obama can crack that nut, polls notwithstanding, he will not win either state.

    not so sure.... (none / 0) (#12)
    by laila on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 05:29:35 PM EST
    I can't help but think about NC and Indiana in the primaries...I wouldn't count on military going for McCain in huge numbers.  

    surprisingly (it was to me), (none / 0) (#15)
    by cpinva on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 05:57:37 PM EST
    you would be wrong.

    ...I wouldn't count on military going for McCain in huge numbers.

    i know lots of people in the military, both in NVA and the tidewater. i was stunned at just how strong the support for mccain is among them, given the fact that they (and many already have) are the ones who would be putting their lives on the line, should bush's foreign policies be continued by a pres. mccain.

    perhaps the people i know are not representative of the military as whole, but i'd be willing to bet they are.


    I think this will be ... (none / 0) (#11)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 05:27:08 PM EST
    Obama's peak week.  The race will tighten in the latter part of the month, as races do.

    Thanks to the lousy economy, it looks like Obama is building a wide enough lead now that McCain is unlikely to be able to catch him.

    But I wouldn't put too much stock in Obama winning NC.

    There's still a chance for Obama to blow this.  (If his support of the bailout begins to seem more about Wall Street than Main Street, for instance.)  But it seems increasing unlikely.  

    Obama is very lucky that the economic blew up when it did.  

    independents (none / 0) (#13)
    by stinkycheeseman on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 05:35:34 PM EST
    I think it is important for Obama to get more votes from independents because that way he is getting votes from independents and democrats and will have an increased chance of winning the election.