home

The Straw Grasp

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:42:50 AM EST
Tags: (all tags)
Share This: Digg! StumbleUpon del.icio.us reddit reddit

Now that McCain's "tightening" meme has pretty much slipped away, some Republican leaners are grasping at some new straw. Glenn Reynolds writes:

GOP halves Democratic lead in generic ballot. "Democrats now lead by four points, their slimmest lead in more than three years. A week ago, according to the George Washington University poll, their advantage was eight points." Mickey Kaus thinks he knows why.

Kaus' theory? When Obama goes up, Congressional Dems go down. The problem with the theory? It is nonsense. The poll relied upon for claiming the Dem generic lead is the Battleground poll - which simply does not change. From The Hill article relied upon by Kaus:

While the poll could give Republican candidates hope in a tough political landscape for the GOP, it had only mixed news for the party’s presidential candidate, John McCain. The Arizona senator remained three points behind Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

Yep. Battleground - the poll that has had it a 3 point race for a month. But when it seems clear that Obama is going to win, Dem haters like Kaus need to grasp at straw. The fact is the larger the Obama lead in a poll, the larger the generic Dem congressional lead. Dems will get big gains in the House and Senate this year. There is NO DOUBT about that. There is more doubt about Obama winning than that.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< The Polls - 10/31 | Young Voters: Now And Future Democrats? >

  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft


    • Display: Sort:
    The Straw Grasp | 9 comments (9 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment

    The quintessential concern troll (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by Demi Moaned on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:54:00 AM EST
    I first came across Kaus' writings on Slate in the months leading up to the 2000 election. At that time, he had a running feature of his daily agonizing over whether to vote for Gore or Bush. His biggest fear (and one that he hung on to literally for years afterwards) was that Democrats would undo welfare reform.

    In 2004 he advocated what he called the gold watch approach, i.e., "you've done a good job, President Bush, but now we need a change."

    Needless to say, he is odious to me, much more so than most unabashedly right-wing voices as he pretends to be on our side.

    My theory, BTD, (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by easilydistracted on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:58:59 AM EST
    is that they have to cobble up some sort of gobbledygook to keep their base motivated. If the base deems the presidency a lost cause, it may not even bother to show up at the polls.  The overall damage to down ticket repubs in that scenario is self evident. Thus, the propaganda continues.    

    There might be a nugget of truth in that (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by joanneleon on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:27:24 AM EST
    There's no doubt that Kaus is grasping at straws and he's coming from an anti-dem point of view, but there may be a nugget of truth in what he says.

    The Republican brand has been ruined.  But the Democratic brand has not necessarily been strengthened that much.  The Obama brand has been strengthened, for sure.  But how much do people equate the Obama brand with the Democratic brand?

    Not that much, I would argue.  Again, I base this on the approval numbers for Congress.  

    The reason we are going to gain numbers in the House and Senate is that 1) there is a strong "throw the bums out" sentiment and Bush is bringing down every Republican and 2) the Obama brand is strong and has long coattails.

    We've got a chance now, for the next 2-4 years, to strengthen the Democratic brand in Congress.  IMHO, this depends on how much Obama and Congress listen to the people and how they lead.  There's no room for whining anymore.  They've got to get in there and do what they said they'd do, and they've got to quit lying and spinning and really do things that benefit the middle class.  If they don't, we will see the great advantage we currently have sink like a rock.

    Yeah (none / 0) (#9)
    by Steve M on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:44:29 PM EST
    It all comes down to governing well.  That's what will really establish a Democratic brand, one way or another.  Bill Clinton doesn't have a great reputation on the economy because he was a good campaigner, but because people feel the country went in the right direction under his stewardship.  Eight responsible years would go a long way towards cementing the brand, to mix a metaphor.

    Parent
    heh (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:49:14 AM EST
    The Republicans have about as much chance of taking the House this year as the reincarnated Whigs do.

    How about we run my reincarnated (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Exeter on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:59:45 AM EST
    Know Nothings aginst your reincarnated whigs??? ; )

    Parent
    My Reincarnated (none / 0) (#8)
    by Socraticsilence on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:12:52 PM EST
    Free Soil party says bring it.

    Parent
    I had forgotten that Mickey Kaus (none / 0) (#5)
    by Joelarama on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:49:38 AM EST
    even existed until this post.  I'm serious.  Does he still have the readers or (as I perceived) influence he had in the early 2000s?  Just curious.

    No (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:01:06 AM EST


    Parent
    The Straw Grasp | 9 comments (9 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment