Obama to Spend Last Weeks in Red States

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:25:13 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Sarah Palin (all tags)

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Sen. Barack Obama will concentrate on states that voted for George W. Bush in 2004. His schedule:

He and his aides appear so confident of his prospects that apart from a brief stop in Madison, Wis., next Thursday, Obama currently has no plans during the next 10 days to return to Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire or any other state that voted for John Kerry in 2004.

Instead, he intends to spend two days this week in Florida, where early voting begins on Monday, and travel to Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico and possibly Nevada and Indiana. Those states hold 97 electoral votes combined, and Bush all in 2004.

Obama strategist David Axlerod says:

"I don't want to say he won't go to a Blue State, but we're certainly concentrating on expanding the map."

More...

VP candidate Joe Biden will also hit Republican areas in Colorado this week. Unlike Sarah Palin, who will only be visiting Republican safe zones like Colorado Springs, Grand Junction and Loveland, on Tuesday and Wednesday, Biden will visit Colorado Springs and Greeley in addition to Democratic safe zones like Pueblo. He'll also be in Commerce City in Adams County.

Sarah Palin arrived in Colorado Springs tonight, after a day in Roswell, New Mexico during which she introduced "Ed the Dairyman."

Early voting begins here in Colorado tomorrow. Big turnout is expected. In addition, 40% of our 3.1 million voters have requested mail-in ballots.

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Obama to Spend Last Weeks in Red States | 31 comments (31 topical)

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Obama (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by cal1942 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:39:10 PM EST

should be in New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia and forget Indiana and the others.

If he gets Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico he'll need either Colorado or Virginia to win. He does have a chance at Ohio.

Don't like the look of what's happening in Florida. McCain's up by 2 in Florida AFTER the 10/15 debate.

I'd rather a second trip to Florida (none / 0) (#3)
by andgarden on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:42:58 PM EST

than another to Indiana.

If I were thinking "play it safe," I'd want him to camp out in Virginia.


me too. (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by coigue on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 10:25:42 AM EST

I think he's got NO chance in Indiana. I am glad if W Va is not on the itinerary.


He needs to keep the field (none / 0) (#4)
by zvs888 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:47:27 PM EST

Spread out.

McCain's campaign seems oblivious to the fact that Obama's path of least resistance is Colorado or Virginia.

After all they're still wasting time in Pennsylvania despite the lack of a poll showing Obama with even a single digit lead.

But yea, I agree that Indiana is kind of suspicious. Indiana is the state that would put Obama at 375, which is like the roses on top of the icing on the cake...


I'm speculating that McCain thinks CO is lost (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by andgarden on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:51:27 PM EST

So he's making a last ditch attempt to grab Pennsylvania. I don't think it'll work. Remember the March map?


Yeah (5.00 / 1) (#7)
by zvs888 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:57:25 PM EST

Somehow though, McCain's campaign should realize the impossibility of turning Pennsylvania blue. 400-600k extra Democrats on top of an already blue state.

Conventional wisdom still seems to be that its harder to turn states rather than hold, I would guess.

But then again, his campaign has been all over the place, like that sojourn through Iowa/Wisconsin last week, which was a waste of time.

Better for us if they don't realize that its probably easier to hold Colorado than turn Pennsylvania (in my humble opinion anyways).


He needs Obama to bleed white ethnic dems (none / 0) (#10)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 12:00:55 AM EST

Like the kinds who lie in Northeast Philly (PDF)

But yeah, it's a real long shot.


LOL. (none / 0) (#26)
by coigue on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 10:28:24 AM EST

I wonder if people who work on campaigns immediately look at people and size up their demographics...like at dinner parties and at the grocery store.

Occupational hazard?


: Hehe (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by lilburro on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 12:40:02 PM EST

I canvassed for the DNC as a summer job once. Ever since then, when I'm walking through neighborhoods, I size up the houses I pass based on car quantity, car make, house size, number of decorations, presence or absence of pineapple decorations, etc. to determine political affiliation and involvment. Oo, and garden size and complexity! I may be scarred for life.

Well, McCain's trip to Wisconsin (none / 0) (#14)
by Cream City on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 12:49:37 AM EST

must have made Obama come to Wisconsin this week, and to Madison yet -- where the only Republicans are the legislators coming there from red counties.

Why else come to the bluest city anywhere? The suddenly planned rally is the day of the judge's ruling on the voter registration mess, but it doesn't seem to make much sense to bring attention to it, as it might appear to be identified with it.

So it must be McCain's trek to Wisconsin that is bringing Obama to Madison, too -- unless it's because so many of the students at that campus are not from Wisconsin, so it's to get their absentee ballots going back to their states in the East?


: Fundraiser? (none / 0) (#20)
by oculus on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:45:07 AM EST

no, if he thought Colorado was lost (none / 0) (#8)
by Jeralyn on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:58:25 PM EST

he wouldn't have Palin be spending Monday here. He's shoring up the base here again.


375? (5.00 / 0) (#9)
by cal1942 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:59:43 PM EST

I'm concerned with getting 270. I know that putting the toss-up states in the column of whoever is ahead right now looks like Obama will get in the 370 range but those states are toss-ups for a reason.

I don't believe that spreading oneself too thin is a good idea. It's time to quit messing around and secure the states needed to win.

The lead's been narrowing in the last week in spite of McCain's terrible showing in the last debate. The media fascination with Joe the Plumber, in spite of the massive holes in his 'story,' didn't help the cause.


I guess the problem (none / 0) (#11)
by zvs888 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 12:03:51 AM EST

Is that Obama has too much cash.

The 150M on top of another 100M (speculative) already this month, means that he has to put money in other markets.

Talking to my parents in Florida, the media markets in West Palm and the like are totally saturated.

And the ground game resources are probably as big as they can get without being unwieldy. At this point we really are in the unknown territory of just giving it a run.

It's more advantageous to keep McCain's 40M or so remaining spread over the swing states rather than concentrated in Virginia/Colorado. That's probably my point.


: I see (5.00 / 0) (#23)
by cal1942 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 08:45:06 AM EST

your point.
I'm on edge and want to see this thing put to bed. Sew up what it takes to win and don't worry about trying to make a big show.
I've had fear that the last two weeks would be an all too sickening period where people fall into the same patterns in the voting booth that we've witnessed the past eight years.

: I'm seeing national cable buys (none / 0) (#12)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 12:06:02 AM EST

and Obama apparently just did a network buy.

I play with that map daily (none / 0) (#6)
by CoralGables on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:56:55 PM EST

looking for the path to 369 to put the roses on top of the icing.


If you've got it... (none / 0) (#29)
by Tom Hilton on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 12:29:08 PM EST

He needs to keep the field Spread out.

Yes, and more importantly he can afford to keep the field spread out. With that $150 million September haul, the Obama campaign can afford to saturate every potential swing state and make a credible effort in second-tier red states, and do a 30-minute nationwide broadcast on every major network the Wednesday before the election.

And I don't see Indiana as frivolous; to my mind, the more states you put an effort into, the more possible paths there are to 270. It's insurance. 375 would be nice, of course...


I thought Iowa was already (none / 0) (#19)
by oculus on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:44:22 AM EST

firmly on the Obama side of the ledger.


Thanks to the electoral college (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by Che's Lounge on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 12:27:02 AM EST

The candidates have not spent more than a few minutes in CA. Well, at least I got to meet Kucinich. In person. Twice.

They only come to our states (5.00 / 2) (#15)
by nycstray on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:20:29 AM EST

for the millions of dollars. Otherwise, we don't exist.

I wish they wouldn't run ads here if they don't have the decency to campaign to us common folks in these states.


: It's the penalty of being right too often: (5.00 / 2) (#17)
by Robot Porter on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:33:31 AM EST

People ignored you.
TLers know this only too well.
;)

Initially the headline made me think (5.00 / 1) (#22)
by lilburro on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 08:05:40 AM EST

"GOD WHAT ARE THEY DOING???" but that list of states works perfectly fine for me. Georgia and South Carolina are left out of it. I wonder what the campaign actually thinks about their chances in North Carolina...I know it is polling very closely.

well (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by connecticut yankee on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 08:48:58 AM EST

Joe Scarborough made the suggestion that they not over-reach. But we don't have their internal polls so it's hard to second guess. Theyve also run a pretty solid campaign so I wouldnt even try.

: Their limitations are in the top people (none / 0) (#27)
by coigue on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 10:30:44 AM EST

that's where they need to focus on essentials. Otheriwse, they have plenty of cash to put new states into theground game and put ads into new markets

No last minute Philly rally? (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:29:18 PM EST

hmmm. . .

It can't be a Presidential election without a last minute Philly rally!

Axelrod is craving a cheesesteak ... (none / 0) (#16)
by Robot Porter on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:26:34 AM EST

but Obama is trying to get him on his macrobiotic diet.

So they compromised: Pulled-pork sammies and red states.

;)


heh (none / 0) (#18)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:40:09 AM EST

Channeling Tina Fey? ("I love Jews and cuban food!")

But what about Indiana? Peanut Butter sandwiches on white bread?


: Oh man . . . . (none / 0) (#21)
by nycstray on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 03:55:21 AM EST

that just stuck to the roof of my mouth!

pulled pork GOOOOD :) (none / 0) (#28)
by samtaylor2 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 10:52:16 AM EST

Nope, he wants bratwurst and brewski (none / 0) (#30)
by Cream City on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 12:35:01 PM EST

or why else come to Wisconsin but for our "brats" -- and with sauerkraut, of course.

But wait 'til he sees how Madison, the island not of Wisconsin but only in Wisconsin, serves 'em up. As a headline in local media said, they have their "brats on croissants." And with wine, not beer. :-)
