Why Would Bush Veto The Iraq Supplemental?
Digby cited to some real insight on the Bush calculus on the Iraq supplemental funding bill from Gene Lyons and then added some of the special Digby insight. It got me to thinking, and hopefully adding some insights of my own. But first, Gene Lyons:
Here’s a puzzle: If President Bush really thinks he’s holding all the cards in his impending showdown with congressional Democrats over Iraq funding, why bother with a veto ? On previous occasions when Congress passed laws Bush found irksome, he’s quietly issued “signing statements” declaring in essence that the president is a law unto himself. . . . Two somewhat paradoxical reasons. First, the stakes are too high, because everybody’s watching. Bush may be commander-in-chief, but the United States isn’t yet a military dictatorship. Second, some Republicans have convinced themselves they’ve got the Democrats where they want them.
The first is the right answer. Too many people have become convinced that Bush can do anything and get away with it. Only if Dems LET him. Look at Gonzogate The second I think is not true. I do not believe there isa Republican in the United States that does not believe Bush is leading them towards an unprecedented electoral disaster in 2008. I think Lyons is wrong on 2. Then why will the GOP not jump off of Bush's political kamikaze mission? I'll tell you why I think they aren't on the flip.
Digby says:
I understand why the political establishment is convinced it's incredibly risky for the Democrats to face down the president on this. As they always do, they are fighting the last war (and half a dozen before that.)
Digby then makes the point that everyone should remember but does not - Clinton fought Gingrich to save Medicare, an incredibly popular program. Gingricvh fought for tax cuts. Clinton remembered his lesson in 1998 - he "saved social security first." Here Bush would be "saving" the Iraq Debacle.
But does this explain why the GOP is marching in lockstep like lemmings to political suicide? The answer lies here:
Said Grover [Norquist]:The base isn't interested in Iraq. The base is for Bush. If Bush said tomorrow, we're leaving in two months, there would be no revolt.
And here:
I have concerns about cutting off funding . . . I think there is a possibility, given how obstinate the Administration is, that if we try to cut off funding, Bush is hellbent on doing what he is doing . . . he may decide to play chicken and say 'you guys do whatever you want [I'm keeping the troops there]' . . .
And whenever Matt Bennett, Leon Panetta, Lee Hamilton and every other Broder/Ignatius Democrat opens his mouth.
In plain language, the GOP is an authoritarian political party where the Decider decides and everyone else nods. The baa baa base will make you pay if you do not. Moreover, the GOP hopes the Dems continue to cower and fear playing hardball with Bush.
The GOP is hoping that Obama will listen to Broder and Ignatius and save them from Bush and Iraq. They have no other play. So that's the play they will make. So far Obama is trying hard.
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