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Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House

A new poll commissioned by NPR, and conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research shows Democrats are in position to take back the House of Representatives.

Asked whom they'd vote for in their congressional district, 51 percent said they would pick the Democratic candidate and 40 percent would vote for the Republican. The remaining 9 percent were undecided or declined to answer. And a majority of moderates -- 59 percent -- said they plan to vote for Democrats running for Congress.

The results are almost identical to one taken last week for Democracy Corps.

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  • Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by scribe on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:36:31 PM EST
    This is nice, but the only poll which counts is the one on Nov. 7, in the election booth.

    Until then, there's little point in doing anything other than making sure as many progressive voters get to the polls and actually vote as possible, and sufficiently discouraging the Rethugs from doing similarly.

    Make it happen, people.

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (1.00 / 0) (#7)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:03:37 PM EST
    It consisted of a telephone survey of 1,000 likely voters in the 48 most competitive congressional districts.

    Now let me see. That is a survey of about 20 likley voters in 48 out of more than 500 districts... somehow that doesn't strike me as a very accurate sample, given that it is the individual district results that count, not the total.

    And, of course, the poll doesn't allow for upsets in what are regarded as "safe" districts by both sides. Should we assume none? Or will all the upsets break 50-50?

    Arlen - Perhaps you can explain to us why the Repub base is less motivated?? Can you understand how happy the Repubs were with the Lynne Stewart decision?? And with North Korea? All they need now is a tape from OBL to make things complete.

    Kdog - If you will refer to the NPR link you will find that Foley is basically regarded as a non-issue. Of course you are welcome to disbelieve that and believe the poll.

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#9)
    by roy on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:27:01 PM EST
    That is a survey of about 20 likley voters in 48 out of more than 500 districts...

    That's a fair point, in principle.  But if these poll results aren't in the right ballpark, there'd be some semi-recent poll contradicting it.  Do you know of any polls saying that the election will go other than badly for the GOP?

    You can start looking here.


    Parent

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (1.00 / 0) (#8)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:12:29 PM EST
    edger - Nice to see you comparing the Repubs and the Islamofacists... It is always heart warming to observe you at work..

    And who, pray tell, among the Right will reject a Repub to vote for a Left Wing Demo?

    Even more, what Demo will reject a moderate to vote for a Left Wing Demo??

    As the number of voters increase, the influence of the Demo faithful decreases... I call that the Lieberman Effect.

    As for motivation... I read somewhere that only about 15% of the Demos voted in the various primaries.... That is hardly a ringing endorsement. In fact it shows a general unhappiness with the candidates...

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (1.00 / 0) (#15)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:47:51 PM EST
    edger - keep  believeing they'll stay home..

    roy - No. The sample's too small.


    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#2)
    by Arlen on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:44:06 PM EST
    I have very little doubt that Democrats will take back the House this fall. Chris Bowers over at mydd has been predicting gains of 19-27 seats for quite some time now and the conventional wisdom at this point is that Dems will take the House back.

    What's perhaps more important to note at this point is that Dem voters are much more energized to vote and motiviated to turn out on November 7th- while the Republican base is considerably less so for a variety of reasons.

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#3)
    by Dadler on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:52:45 PM EST
    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#4)
    by kdog on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:53:27 PM EST
    The Dems best hope is GOP christian "values" voters stomach's being so nauseated by Foley and various other GOP corruption scandals that they stay home.  It takes the superstitous community a little longer to catch on...but I think they are starting to get the picture that they've been pandered and lied to by the so-called party of "Jesus".

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#5)
    by Edger on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 02:23:51 PM EST
    kdo, good point you make there about the GOP christian "values" voters starting to get the picture.

    It's the same point, I think, that Salman Rushdie made when he said: "when the Catholics of Northern Ireland became disillusioned by being represented by the IRA that is what brought the IRA to the peace table. At that moment their power disappeared. And that's why I'm saying that it is in a way incumbent on the Muslim world to reject Islamic radicalism, because that is what will remove the power of Islamic radicalism."

    When the christian "values" voters become nauseated with bushco and the gop and become disillusioned by being represented by them it will remove their power.

    Parent

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#10)
    by Patrick on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:43:47 PM EST
    When the christian "values" voters become nauseated with bushco and the gop and become disillusioned by being represented by them it will remove their power.

    What's the fascination with this equation.  It's not like anyone will have a chance to vote for him (Bush) in 2008, term limits and all.  So for someone to equate nauseated with "Buscho" to an automatic vote for a democratic candidate seems a bit simplistic to me.  Also approval poles don't equate to votes for either party..If they did, the 18-23% approval rating congress was consitantly getting would equal a big turnover every election.  The balance of power shifts throughout the years, and if the GOP loses it, the Dems will too.  Neither party has the market cornered on corruption, and what comes around goes around.  

     

    Parent

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#11)
    by Edger on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 06:46:49 PM EST
    So for someone to equate nauseated with "Buscho" to an automatic vote for a democratic candidate seems a bit simplistic to me

    Me too. I haven't seen anyone do that here, have you? If so, link to the comment, or give it your best spin. Be careful not to get dizzy and fall over while you're at it though.

    In case you hadn't noticed, these elections are shaping up to be an excercise in an automatic vote for throwing the bums out. Such is the legacy of the gop and bushco. Aren't they wonderful? Hand me one of those airsick bags, will you?

    Unfortunately giving the electorate the old choice of a "lesser of two evils".

    But fortunately, the "lesser of two evils" has committed to cutting the feet out from underneath the "greater of two evils", so I guess they can't be all bad. ;-)

    So... are you supporting the "lesser"? Or the "greater"? Of the two evils?

    Parent

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#12)
    by Patrick on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:10:53 PM EST
    Perhaps I'm mistunderstanding your comment then.  Please explain what you mean by saying "Christian value voters getting the picture"?  

    To me it seems to indicate you believe they will vote other than republican.  

    As for me, I'll vote for the person/issue that bests aligns with my beliefs.  To date that's been the republicans, and they are closer to conservatism than the dems...Although I admit it's getting harder to distinguish between the two parties lately.  

    Parent

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#13)
    by Edger on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:34:05 PM EST
    No. You're not "mistunderstanding" my comment at all. You're purposely pretending at not "getting the picture".

    Well, sigh. Let me dumb it down for you a bit:

    "When the christian "values" voters become nauseated with bushco and the gop and become disillusioned by being represented by them [and stay home on November 7] it will remove their power."

    You don't really think they're going to get off their a$$es to go vote for these guys, in knowing denunciation of their professed beliefs, do you?

    Or do you think the christian "values" voters will compartmentalize their minds again?

    I think that's a possibility, but not a likely one for most of them.

    Do I have more faith in them than you do?

    Parent

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#16)
    by Patrick on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:13:14 PM EST
    Well actually I think a close election will motivate the voters on both sides.  

    And BTW, you're being a d!ck.  You didn't need to dumb it down, but you did need to make it coherent.  Sorry if that's difficult for you.  

    Parent

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#18)
    by Edger on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 10:00:42 PM EST
    And BTW, you're being a d!ck.

    Ok. If you say so. How's this for coherence?

    I consider bush and his administration to be a radical terrorist organization.

    I'll 'borrow' a statement from a few years ago that you'll probably remember as well: "we [will] not distinguish between the terrorists and those who harbor or support them"

    Personally? I think being terrorist is "being a d!ck". Would you not agree?

    Parent

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#6)
    by HeadScratcher on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 04:20:45 PM EST
    I'm always amused by these polls since they aren't representative at all. There isn't one election, but 435 different elections.

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#14)
    by Edger on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:05:43 PM EST
    And who, pray tell, among the Right will reject a Repub to vote for a Left Wing Demo?

    Huh. Well. That's a tough one, I must admit.

    Maybe you're right, and they won't reject a rethug. But then again, maybe they'll just stay home.

    Either way works for me.

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#17)
    by Edger on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:14:23 PM EST
    keep  believeing they'll stay home

    Well, like I said: either way works for me.

    If they stay home the gop is dead. And they get to stay true to their professed morals. It'll be the first time in 6 years, but hey, they gotta start cleansing themselves of their sins sometime, right?

    If they don't stay home, and go vote for gop candidates, they show themselves up as lying immoral hypocrites who've sold their souls cheap, and for what? A vicarious feeling of power? A pat on the head and a stab in the back from Bush while he laughs at them as suckers behind their backs? And they'll be repudiating everything their professed religion has taught them all their lives.

    And still lose the house and the senate.

    Helluva choice. Thanks to Bush and the gop.

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#19)
    by Slado on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:30:30 AM EST
    Don't know what to make of this.   We conservatives have started to succumb to the media hype about Speaker Pelosi (it still gives me the chills just typing it) but our man Rove is confident...maybe there is hope!



    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#21)
    by Edger on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:44:07 AM EST
    Don't take this personally, Slado, but your comment is interesting: "maybe there is hope!"

    If conservatives feel no hope, and are, as you say, reduced to 'hoping there is 'hope' then there is, in my opinion great hope for the country to make a meaningful step away from the culture of darkness and fear and hate and the bush policies of hegemony and wanton greed and destruction, in November.

    I, and I most liberals, are not hoping there is hope. We have a great deal of it. Confidence too. We don't need 'our man' to have that, there is lots of it to go around.

    It 'runneth over', in fact.

    Parent

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#20)
    by Slado on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:35:53 AM EST
    Rove Here's the link

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#22)
    by Slado on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 09:49:01 AM EST
    Don't worry edgar if I took things personally I'd stop visiting TL. I have no idea what to think. I live in one of the targeted districts and my incumbent congressman appears to be 5 to 8 pts behind his democratic challenger. Why? Who knows. The incumbent has no scandals the challenger is a nice guy but only a sherriff looking to make a name for himself. (Hosttetler vs. Ellsworth). The ads depict all the smiliar themes. "Do you want a Speaker Pelosi"...."We need a change"..."Culture of Coroption"..."Nobody wants a liberal majority"....blah, blah, blah My district voted overwhelmingly for Bush and there are strong local republicans running with much support so common sense says Hosttetler will prevail, but polls show he won't so who knows. I have a feeling we will all be scratching our heads come November. I'm frankly tired of the pregame hype. It's worse then a Superbowl. Let's just vote and see who wins.

    Re: Second Poll Shows Dems May Take Back the House (none / 0) (#23)
    by Edger on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 10:44:42 AM EST
    Speak out,
    you got to speak out against the madness
    You got to speak your mind,
    If you dare.
    ...
    It's been a long time comin',
    It's been a long time gone.
    But you know, the darkest hour,
    Is always just before the dawn.

    And it appears to be a long time,
    Such a long, long, long time,
    Before the dawn.


    --CSNY, Long Time Gone