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Campaigns Temper Expectations | 64 comments (64 topical)

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I'll have my predictions later (none / 0) (#11)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:10:20 AM EST
But Obama COULD win NC by 15. the demographics certainly allow for that.

The ONLY way Clinton keeps it close is if she wins whites 2-1.

My own view is that the performances to watch tonight are with white voters. If you are wondering about Obama's electability, you have to see if the Wright thing has destroyed him with white voters.

If he loses whites 60-40 in Indiana, his neighboring state with a quarter of the electorate in the Chicago area, then he has serious problems and needs to win Oregon to dispell the doubts.

you know what, I am gonna write a post on this.

[ Parent ]

BTD (5.00 / 1) (#36)
by DJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:37:05 AM EST
Can the white voters just decide he's not the best choice, Hillary has better ideas, etc. and it not be about the Wright thing?

[ Parent ]
I know you don't think Poblano is any good (none / 0) (#17)
by magster on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:16:02 AM EST
but he had a theory as to why all the pollsters are blowing the A-A vote in the southern states.  It's hard to follow, but I think I understand.

Anyway, using a different model, he said A-A turnout should be at least 40%.

[ Parent ]

To me (none / 0) (#43)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:43:10 AM EST
that is irrelevant to Obama's electability. Heck, it hurts it to some degree. He is fast becoming the "black" candidate.

[ Parent ]
as Stella pointed out yesterday (none / 0) (#53)
by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:31:07 AM EST
via a link to an Australian news story, 90% of Obama's popular lead vote comes from IL.  By that account, he should wipe the floor in IN.

I'm not seeing that happen.

[ Parent ]

Campaigns Temper Expectations | 64 comments (64 topical)

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