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AP-Ipsos National Poll: Hillary Ahead by 7 | 58 comments (58 topical)

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Uh. . . (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by LarryInNYC on Mon May 05, 2008 at 09:06:01 PM EST
Given that the large majority of those voters have already voted (or missed the opportunity to vote) I'm not sure how this helps Clinton -- as BTD pointed out in a recent post.

This idea that it's of value to poll people who have already voted to see if the outcome would somehow be different today is new this year, as far as I know.  I'd like to apply it retroactively to the 2000 election if we can.

It's another (5.00 / 3) (#4)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 09:08:45 PM EST
voice in the ear of the superdelegates.

[ Parent ]
Yes. . . (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by LarryInNYC on Mon May 05, 2008 at 09:12:06 PM EST
if it comes down to that, it might actually influence someone's decision.

[ Parent ]
Don't trust the supers... (none / 0) (#60)
by Camorrista on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:26:46 PM EST
It's another voice in the ear of the superdelegates.

What worries is me is something Chuck Todd said last night to Charlie Rose--that most of the supposedly uncommitted/undecided superdelegates were, in fact, aching for any excuse to support Senator Obama.  

Given Obama's lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote, Todd explained, only a only a double-win today for Senator Clinton--a "game-changer," in his words--would prevent the supers from flocking to Obama.  Neither polls nor arguments about demographics or electoral-college math would influence them.

Todd's argument was that the dominant mood among the supers is Clinton fatigue--that the Clintons not only represent the past, but that President Clinton never benefited downstream Democratic candidates and neither would his wife.  The supers, he said, saw Clinton as the known risk and Obama as the unknown risk, and that they preferred the unknown--especially if the delegates numbers (and the press) gave them cover.      

I do realize that Todd is very much the voice of Conventional Wisdom, but he's neither stupid nor out of touch, and if he's right--and, yes, I pray he's not--then I can't see much cause for rejoicing in this poll.

[ Parent ]

It might play (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by Coldblue on Mon May 05, 2008 at 09:11:08 PM EST
on the uncommitted superdelegates.

Certainly can't hurt.

[ Parent ]

It shows buyer's remorse and yes, in 2001... (5.00 / 4) (#7)
by alexei on Mon May 05, 2008 at 09:12:04 PM EST
before 9/11, polls showed buyer's remorse and again after 2004.  As Teresa states, this is another piece for the SDs to consider and they should.  Certainly don't want to have buyer's remorse for a Dem Nominees.

[ Parent ]

AP-Ipsos National Poll: Hillary Ahead by 7 | 58 comments (58 topical)

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