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PPP NC Poll: Obama By 10 | 116 comments (116 topical)

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Momentum claims (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:26:01 PM EST
Well, let's put it this way. If Clinton wins Indiana by 10, West Virginia by 30, Kentucky by 35 and upsets Obama in Oregon, I think Obama is in serious trouble.

Given the demographics that have been constant for a while now, this is not a pipe dream.

 I think Oregon decides the nominee personally.

[ Parent ]

yet, imo michigan and florida (5.00 / 1) (#71)
by sancho on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:38:52 PM EST
have at this point decided the election. i really want to know how that happened and who pushed to get them off of the map and who caved and why. arguably, hillary's the nominee by now, otherwise. which, if true, would mean that the first major party african-american candidate nominee for president would have gotten the nomination through voter disenfranchisement. this is the end of the Civil Rights movement? how ironic is that?

[ Parent ]
No they haven't (5.00 / 0) (#74)
by CST on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:41:50 PM EST
Even if you include Florida and Michigan, it is still a very close race.  No one has won yet - by any measure.

[ Parent ]
There is no way to know this. (5.00 / 0) (#78)
by madamab on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:44:58 PM EST
Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot in MI. And, neither candidate even campaigned in either state.

Had the DNC acted responsibly and simply halved the delegates to be seated at the convention, who knows how far ahead HRC would be?

[ Parent ]

Now I am confused (none / 0) (#82)
by CST on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:47:36 PM EST
I am saying, even if you include the vote that was done, it is still pretty close.

There are only so many delegates at stake in those states... it wouldn't be a complete game changer at this point, it would benefit her to be sure, but the race wouldn't be over by any means.

[ Parent ]

I know what you're saying. (5.00 / 0) (#86)
by madamab on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:54:05 PM EST
It's very, very close, and because there is no clear delegate winner right now, the SD's will have to decide. One factor on which they will decide will be the popular vote count.

Now, there is such a dispute about this count because of what happened in FL and MI. The DNC - and many Obamans - like to pretend those millions of people never voted. That is not acceptable. If they do count the votes, they tend to give all the Uncommitted votes to Obama. That, also, is not acceptable, since we have no way of knowing for whom they actually voted.

Since no one really knows how many votes Obama got in MI, and since neither candidate campaigned in either MI or FL, who knows what the popular vote count would be had the matter of the date changes been settled before the primary?

That's why I'm so angry at the DNC and why I think nominating Obama without settling FL and MI is absolutely ridiculous. I agree that the magic number, if there is one, should now be 2209, not 2025.

[ Parent ]

Gotcha (none / 0) (#94)
by CST on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:02:25 PM EST
I would personally want whatever candidate that wins to win regardless of how or if Michigan/Florida are counted.  Not because I don't think they should be counted, just because any solution that relies on counting or not counting Florida/Michigan to win is going to be suspect with some group of voters and hurt the party in November.  I am also pissed off at the DNC, I think they really blew this one big time.


[ Parent ]
It is impossible to re-run the race (none / 0) (#95)
by ineedalife on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:03:51 PM EST
but most likely, even with half delegates, if FL and MI had "counted" when they voted the psychological dynamic and media narrative of the entire race would have been different.

Would Obama been able to survive Super Tuesday? Who knows?

Would Obama been able to run up the score in his 11-0 run? Would he have had an 11-0 run? Who knows.

How would the fund-raising dynamic been changed? Who knows?

The only thing we know is that it would have been different.

[ Parent ]

Agreed (none / 0) (#97)
by CST on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:07:49 PM EST
Would he have won Michigan?

I think he would've had a pretty good shot, or at least could've come close. I think he really screwed up on the re-vote here, since I think he had a good shot of winning if not significantly narrowing the gap.  Especially if he had pushed for re-votes.  This was probably my biggest dissapointment with his campaign.

[ Parent ]

Exceedlying different! (none / 0) (#98)
by alexei on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:08:00 PM EST
My analysis is that Obama would not have been able to survive Super Tuesday (at least not as a serious candidate, ala Huckabee).  That is why Brazile pushed for the death penalty for those two states instead of jail time for half their delegates.

[ Parent ]
That's why there needed to be a vote (none / 0) (#100)
by CST on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:10:25 PM EST
So we don't have to rely on the "analysis"  of people like us - who really have no idea.

[ Parent ]
Didn't mean to hit a nerve. (none / 0) (#118)
by alexei on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:16:20 PM EST
But as all hypotheticals, you never "know" unless it happens.  Obviously, I was outlining what I thought could be a reasonable scenario; I was not stating that this was the only outcome, just my reasoned opinion (thus, the term "analysis").  I will refrain from using that term in the future, since it seems to have some connotations that I did not mean to give.

I do however take exception to "people like us who really have no idea".  You have no idea who I am or what experience I have.   That said, obviously, there are a number of "answers" to the question and I just posited my theory.

[ Parent ]

Sorry (none / 0) (#120)
by CST on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:21:01 PM EST
I was kinda joking, I wasn't offended and didn't mean to offend.  I was just making the point that even thoughtful analysis is often wrong, as we have been shown over and over again in this campaign.

Also by "people like us" I really mean no one, regardless of experience or knowledge, can have any idea who would win Michigan in a real vote.  I wasn't assuming anything about you, other than the fact that you haven't seen the results of a true Michigan vote.

[ Parent ]

Exactly. (5.00 / 1) (#75)
by madamab on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:42:37 PM EST
The Obama supporters who keep harping on pledged delegates do not get this point, or they simply refuse to acknowledge it. Obama is only ahead because Florida and Michigan are being counted out of the equation. That's millions of voters! How can that be okay with them? (I know, I know. They are not progressives, they're Obamans.)

I blame the DNC for caving to Donna Brazile and her ilk. The 50% solution would have been a perfect punishment and within the DNC Rules. 50% of the delegates would have been seated from each state, but the popular votes would all have been counted. Sounds good to me, but not to the DNC, apparently.

[ Parent ]

You mean Harold Ickes and his ilk? (1.00 / 0) (#90)
by jimotto on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:59:05 PM EST
I do agree with you that the DNC screwed the pooch.    Docking the states 50% of their delegates would and letting the campaign go on would have had the desired effect of deterrence without causing the minefield we're stuck in now.  But lets remember Clinton supporters were well represented amoungst the imbeciles on the DNC who brought us this mess.  

[ Parent ]
Old argument (5.00 / 0) (#99)
by cmugirl on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:10:07 PM EST
Doesn't matter that Ickes was for it before he was against it - the thing is Hillary's argument is the RIGHT one.  Obama has no credible argument here, except his lackeys at the DNC are setting their own narrative.

[ Parent ]
I was watching Axmen (4.00 / 1) (#31)
by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:35:08 PM EST
this week. Man are they in trouble this year.  All the logging firms are feeling the construction pinch, and they expect to be in trouble until 2011.  They laid off workers because they couldn't affod to keep going in one crew.  Another crew were undone when some high cost rope was stolen by hunters.  The profit margin they opperate under must be small.

I wonder how the gas back and forth will affect the vote?  They seems to be energy guzzlers.

[ Parent ]

Turkana gets a front row seat (none / 0) (#26)
by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:28:27 PM EST


[ Parent ]
I think Obama will be in trouble... (none / 0) (#27)
by sweetthings on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:28:31 PM EST
When we see the first Super defect from his camp to Hillary.

Any chance we'll see that tomorrow?

[ Parent ]

Won;t happen (none / 0) (#28)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:31:05 PM EST
unless the scenario I describe happens. The REAL question is will SDs hold until then,

[ Parent ]
Exactly (5.00 / 2) (#33)
by AnninCA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:42:24 PM EST
right, BTD.  This election is in their hands.

And all of these elections are nothing more than "electability arguments" at this point.

So traditional Democrats, such as myself, may well have to concede.

I say, still, that puts us into play in the Fall.  I think only the hard-core social liberals will stick with him, and that's not a big percentage.

This is the year that "change" was demanded.  It may actually prevail.

But then, the supporters must accept the consequences of their own demands.

That means.....change.

And that means......don't count on traditional Dems.

Traditional Dems got trashed.  OK.  We can lose.

But don't put those votes in your "Dem" bucket, either.

After this is over is when the "new" and "improved" Dem party will have to prove their stuff.

Win the Fall.  Step into the roles traditional Dems have played all over America.  Work the precincts, answer the phones, get out the message.

But I think this new generation will find the task a lot more challenging than they realized.  This means work for candidates down the ticket, work for people not so popular or "sexy," and above all......work for someone beyond the president, who doesn't have as much power as people imagine.

So we'll see.  But I do think it's a generational fight.

Not about race.  Not about gender.

It is about generations.

[ Parent ]

There are plenty of young people for Hillary! (none / 0) (#106)
by jfung79 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:26:52 PM EST
And I'm one of them!  

[ Parent ]
Can Hillary break 70% of the white vote (4.00 / 1) (#29)
by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:32:05 PM EST
in NC?  I think that's the over/under.

[ Parent ]
That seems unlikely to me (none / 0) (#30)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:34:52 PM EST


[ Parent ]
i agree with this... (5.00 / 1) (#36)
by oldnorthstate on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:47:01 PM EST
but my personal observations have led me to believe that hillary is doing very well with the mccain vote around the state.  that is, the many democrats and indys that vote in democratic primaries but will usually vote for the gop candidate in november.  

i got the feeling that in early states, that trend was the other way around.  there is some feeling around here that the more these anti clinton "democrats" have seen hillary, the more they have warmed to the idea of voting for her in conjunction with the obama-wright mess.  

things have been moving very fast toward hillary in recent weeks in NC and i do expect many of the late deciders to break her way.  i'll stick with my 7 point prediction for now, but i wouldn't be terribly shocked to see it end within five.  of course, an enormous AA turnout could really throw that number off.

[ Parent ]

She'd need Mississippi numbers (none / 0) (#35)
by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:46:51 PM EST
in other words, indy whites and a defection of the lattes.

[ Parent ]
Yes, I think she can (none / 0) (#110)
by stefystef on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:39:15 PM EST
Only because Bill has been dazzling them in the small town in NC.  I think Indies and conservatives will go for Hillary over Obama.

[ Parent ]
Agree, plus I really think that the gas tax... (none / 0) (#121)
by alexei on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:22:20 PM EST
holiday is a real winner!  Voters can really relate to this and actually see a concrete difference between the candidates in an issue that effects them  where it hurts.  Clinton cares about us and will fight for us, Obama is out of touch and elitist (you know, like those economists).  You really have to admire Hillary's political skills and intuition.  I have said this before, this is a great political maneuver.

[ Parent ]

PPP NC Poll: Obama By 10 | 116 comments (116 topical)

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