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Tuesday Open Thread | 225 comments (225 topical)

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SUSA: Clinton Up by 18 in Pennsylvania (5.00 / 3) (#1)
by Dan the Man on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 09:46:40 AM EST
Link

Interesting and thanks for the link. (none / 0) (#4)
by Maria Garcia on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 09:48:58 AM EST


[ Parent ]
Qpac showing it within 6 points (none / 0) (#6)
by JoeA on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 09:52:35 AM EST
I would want to see another poll or two confirming that SUSA movement, as all the polls in the last week apart from this seem to show dramatic tightening in the race in PA.

[ Parent ]
Hilarious... (none / 0) (#9)
by Exeter on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 09:55:02 AM EST
Daily Kos has the SUSA national numbers in a story on the front page, but no mention of the PA poll. It's like the North Korean News Bureau.  

[ Parent ]
It's natural to a degree. (none / 0) (#72)
by JoeA on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 10:32:46 AM EST
The Hillary supporting commenters on here were hardly shouting the Qpac numbers from the rooftops either.  In fact it was comments about Obama supporters plugging "faux" poll numbers.

The front page at Kos has a pro Obama bent,  just as the front page here has a pro Clinton bent.  Mydd is probably split down the middle (at least for the front page posts).   If you want impartial coverage of the primary you should not be expecting it from either Dailykos or Talkleft.  

[ Parent ]

what is Qpac's reliability history? (none / 0) (#93)
by Josey on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 10:46:06 AM EST


[ Parent ]
Couldn't comment on the reliability of Qpac (5.00 / 1) (#99)
by JoeA on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 10:51:03 AM EST
though I understand they are a well respected outfit.  However their numbers are well in line with other recent polls,  whereas the new SUSA numbers are bucking the trend.  It may well be that the new SUSA numbers are picking up a new dynamic with voters breaking back to Clinton . . .  or it could be an outlier.  

e.g. polls in the last week,

ARG - all square
Qpac -  Clinton by 6
IA - Clinton  by 3
Muhlenberg - Clinton by 10
PPP - Obama by 2
Rasmussen - Clinton by 5

pollster.com

[ Parent ]

It might be an outlier, it might be (none / 0) (#36)
by JoeA on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 10:14:44 AM EST
catching a reversal in the trend.  It's too soon to say without another poll or two confirming the reversal in the trend.

[ Parent ]
No, she shouldn't.. (none / 0) (#118)
by FlaDemFem on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:00:05 AM EST
If Obama can't fight to the finish for the nomination, he has no business being in the GE. It's about being able to go the distance, and so far he hasn't had to do that in an election. He managed to get his opponents in the Dem primary for Senator disqualified, and his election opponents self-destructed. So, he needs to prove he can win a campaign fair and square, without people dropping out to give him the win. So far, he hasn't gone the distance in any election. Except the one he lost for Congress.

[ Parent ]
do you know anything about (none / 0) (#122)
by Josey on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:01:26 AM EST
states holding later primaries receiving 30% more delegates?
Supposedly the May 6 primaries are in this category.


[ Parent ]
I'm hope you are feeling clever today (5.00 / 2) (#169)
by Step Beyond on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:32:21 AM EST
Because this is the pdf of that rules. Pages 1 and 2 cover what you are looking for. Good luck!

The short answer (if you don't feel like reading that) is it depends when your primary is this year and when it was in 2004 as to how many bonus delegates you receive.

[ Parent ]

thank you! (none / 0) (#197)
by Josey on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:52:14 AM EST


[ Parent ]
SUSA Internals of Pennsylvania Poll (none / 0) (#186)
by Dan the Man on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:43:24 AM EST
Link

[ Parent ]
interesting internals on that poll. (none / 0) (#210)
by cpinva on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:00:12 PM EST
one thing i found almost fascinating: there are actually still "undecideds". at this point, what else could you possibly need to know about either candidate, to enable you to make a decision?

perhaps, they might consider adding a dartboard to the voting booths, just in case. lol

[ Parent ]

Tuesday Open Thread | 225 comments (225 topical)

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