Obama is soooo old politics.

I don't expect a wide swath of voters to pick that up but the recent dust-ups, even if any one is not fatal, have I feel, combined to take away all the early lustre. A lustre I might add more from the fact that he had no real public record.  No wonder the Jacobins worshipped him.

Given Hillary's commanding lead in primaries among highest turnout voters and a natural advantage among women and Hispanic voters she has a much better chance than Obama.

I've always felt that Obama's support was really somewhat weak in many different ways.  One example would be his support among among 18-24 year olds, the least dependable group.  His showing among independents represented only those that were willing to come out in the open primaries.  And in Missouri Republican crossovers appear to have given him his slender margin. I don't believe it was ever really indicative of the total independent vote. His support among African-American voters had to be obvious.  Although Hillary would bring out fewer African-American voters I wonder how much lower the turnout would be. The African-American precincts in my county normally turn out about 30-35% of eligible voters.

In total I view each of his primary victories with an asterisk.

I can't see how Obama could beat McCain. I can see how Hillary can beat McCain.