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SUSA PA Poll: Clinton By 14 | 83 comments (83 topical)

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Need the internals to know (none / 0) (#10)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:40:31 AM EST
Could be Obama consolidating the A-A vote in the SUSA poll. Imo, SUSA had Obama's support among A-As way way low.

It is why I adjusted the previous 18 point result down to a 15 point result.

[ Parent ]

This is how it's gonna be (none / 0) (#20)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:45:50 AM EST
within a few points.

[ Parent ]
I agree. (none / 0) (#27)
by JoeA on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:52:06 AM EST
10-15 point margin and Obama will beat expectations.
15-20 point margin and Hillary will be seen to have met expectations and get some positive press.
20+ point margin and I think it's a big win for Hillary and pretty unspinnable for Obama.

[ Parent ]
Disagree (5.00 / 1) (#32)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:56:02 AM EST
if Obama can't keep Hillary below a 10 point margin, his huge spend will look wasteful and silly.

[ Parent ]
Well, given that Hillary started with a 20%+ (none / 0) (#34)
by JoeA on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:57:52 AM EST
lead,  anything below 15% looks good for Obama.  Especially given that he is likely to follow PA with a 20 point win of his own in NC.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm (5.00 / 1) (#39)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:01:54 AM EST
A 14 point loss for Obama in PA will look good? that seems an amazing statement to me.

If that is true, Obama is doomed in November.

I think he can win in November even if eh loses PA by 14, but he can not if a 14 point loss in PA is considered a good result.

I said 5-6 is the best Obama can imo in this primary. I do not think it is GOOD for Obama that that is so.

[ Parent ]

But BTD - it's a primary (none / 0) (#45)
by JoeA on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:14:47 AM EST
There is no correlation between winning a primary and winning the state in GE.

Hence see the recent polls showing Obama winning Michigan within the MOE against McCain,  and Hillary losign it by 9 points to McCain.

Seems to show that even in a state where Hillary won by 55% to 0% against Obama,  he actually is a better GE candidate!  Someone should tell some superdelegates!

[ Parent ]

No correlation? (none / 0) (#58)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:45:10 AM EST
Why do people keep spreading this falsehood? Not all correlations are 1 to 1.

[ Parent ]
oh please. (5.00 / 1) (#41)
by ajain on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:05:16 AM EST
This is such a blatant attempt to spin results, its unbelieveable.

I mean if a candidate is spending 3.3 million bucks a week on air and will do anything, from bowling to feeding a calf and offer kisses to women for votes, I think you have to say that he his going all in.

There aren't any points for losing. But I will concede that if its a small single digit margin, it will be a good outcome for Obama.

[ Parent ]

Nah, (none / 0) (#37)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:59:20 AM EST
honest reporters will see a demographic nightmare. The party is now split racially.

[ Parent ]
Oh my goodness! (none / 0) (#40)
by madamab on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:01:59 AM EST
Every race has tightened as Obama spends tens of millions of dollars in advertising in each state.

Nice try at moving the goalposts, though.

[ Parent ]

Hahahahaha (none / 0) (#78)
by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:43:39 PM EST
That is very funny. Hey why not 30? She wins by 9-10+ and its a loss for him. He pulls within 5 and its a loss for her.

[ Parent ]

SUSA PA Poll: Clinton By 14 | 83 comments (83 topical)

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