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AP-Ipsos Poll: Tight Races In Dem Contest And GE | 14 comments (14 topical)

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Could the Dems for a Day be departing Obama? (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by davnee on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 01:51:50 PM EST
It looks like Clinton-Obama, and Clinton-McCain remained relatively static in their support, but could it be that McCain is peeling off those Dems for a day that Obama loves and a big swath of the indies?  

Young indies may like the idea of Grandpa Maverick.  Reagan Dems may like the idea of putting their lives in the hands of a patriot.  Women and centrist latte sippers may be reacting to McCain's relative moderation.  Catholics can tell the difference between the tepidly pro-life candidate from the tepidly pro-choice candidate.

Clinton and McCain appear to be holding their bases.  Obama is the only one losing a portion of his base.  And that may be in part because Obama's base was always in part a mirage?

I'd want to know if the model was identical for the earlier poll.  Poll numbers don't necessarily mean anything absolute numbers wise, but I think when you compare apples to apples you can discern trends.

I do agree w/ BTD the women for Clinton # is odd (none / 0) (#7)
by davnee on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 01:57:12 PM EST
I just wanted to add that in as a disclaimer to my post.  I'm not taking this poll as gospel.  I'd want to see the trends in the numbers from other polling outfits in their polls over the last few months.

[ Parent ]
You read my mind (none / 0) (#12)
by Lou Grinzo on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 04:18:26 PM EST
I had exactly the same reaction, re:Obama's support possibly eroding.

I think some voters looked at the primary season as a chance to test drive the sleek, racy ObamaMobile, but now that it's time to sign on the dotted line for a vehicle they'll have to live with for years, some of them are opting for a better-known, if stodgier, commitment.

Or maybe the poll is just messed up.

[ Parent ]

AP-Ipsos Poll: Tight Races In Dem Contest And GE | 14 comments (14 topical)

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