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Matt Yglesias' Awkward Truth | 117 comments (117 topical)

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I think Hillary, with a stong (5.00 / 2) (#5)
by kenosharick on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 12:44:01 PM EST
running mate has an exellent chance in the general. She would be strong in Mich,Penn,Ohio,Fla,W.Va.,and NJ. Obamawould probably lose most of these and is counting on(according to today's Washington Journal on CSPAN)Virginia,Mo., and NC- which is a ridiculous longshot strategy for the general.

Are you sure.? (none / 0) (#70)
by 1jpb on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 01:30:12 PM EST
Polling over the last week has BO doing better in all but one state.

Don't misunderstand, I know polls mean nothing this far out, and many of the new polls aren't in critical states, but I don't think we can say BO is any worse than HRC.  I've heard a couple dozen interviews with the "blue collar and older/white" supporters of HRC in Ohio and Pennsylvania.  A large percentage of these folks choose HRC because they think Bill will help out.  Yes, this is anecdotal--NPR's sampling.  But, I would not be shocked if these type of voters went with BO if 1) they were predisposed to the D Party, and 2) BO had a VP that made them comfortable.  They seem to take comfort in Bill, it seems reasonable that they could do the same with a VP (of course, HRC as VP may be problematic.)  Again I know these interviews aren't a scientific sample, so load up on salt, but this far out everything is speculation.

New Jersey - Obama performs 6 points better than Clinton
Washington - Obama performs 8 points better than Clinton
Michigan - Obama performs 2 points better than Clinton
Virginia - Obama performs 11 points better than Clinton
Wisconsin - Obama performs 9 points better than Clinton
Oregon - Obama performs 12 points better than Clinton
Connecticut - Obama performs 14 points better than Clinton
California - Obama performs 6 points better than Clinton
Missouri - Clinton performs 6 points better than Obama
North Carolina - Obama performs 5 points better than Clinton
Nevada - Obama performs 5 points better than Clinton

[ Parent ]

Ky Clinton 58 Obama 29, Minn she beats he dose not (none / 0) (#106)
by Salt on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 02:19:42 PM EST
McCain try Survey USA...  

[ Parent ]
And I agree (none / 0) (#100)
by Salt on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 02:07:24 PM EST

but she can not carry Obama with her.  But I also agree that unless Dems unite behind Clinton and her policies the Party will not win the White House in Nov. she is the more electable when you look at the electoral map.  I also believe the Party itself now has a creditability problem with most voters and legitimacy is a fair question, after Pa. if Clinton has the blow out I believe she will that's will be the time for the Party to right itself if it doesn't no White House and no big gains in Congress recall that the 30 percent of Clinton voters likely to swing are actual Dems and conservative Independents so you would need to consider a loss in any competitive district or State open seat down stream as well.

[ Parent ]
Please back up your claim (none / 0) (#110)
by independent voter on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 02:27:56 PM EST
that "she is the more electable when you look at the electoral map" with evidence.

[ Parent ]
Simple Math (none / 0) (#128)
by Salt on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 03:25:01 PM EST


[ Parent ]
In other words it is your opinion (none / 0) (#129)
by independent voter on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 03:30:07 PM EST
which happens to run counter to every breakdown of the GE electoral map I have seen.

[ Parent ]
plus 27 in 41 percent base is not opinion (none / 0) (#134)
by Salt on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 07:06:25 PM EST
Clinton leads by a twenty-seven point advantage among White Women and 9 percent among party Democrats ......and guess what 41 percent of the electorate are white women...so call it opinion not sure I care, I call it math.

And Ky which is May 20th she is 58 to 28 in the polls, Senator Clinton is the voters choice when their votes count.


[ Parent ]

Nevada (none / 0) (#112)
by MKS on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 02:32:19 PM EST
will be ground zero in 2008.

[ Parent ]
Just like "The West Wing"! (none / 0) (#132)
by cmugirl on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 04:38:23 PM EST


[ Parent ]
Ground Zero? (none / 0) (#136)
by cal1942 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 10:21:00 PM EST
With all of 5 electoral votes.  Blowing off Michigan (17) and Florida (27) is a little more ground zeroish than Nevada's 5 votes.

[ Parent ]

Matt Yglesias' Awkward Truth | 117 comments (117 topical)

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