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Why We Need A Unity Ticket | 272 comments (272 topical)
Double counting (5.00 / 2) (#251)
by badger on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 03:27:50 PM EST
Roughly, each candidate, R and D starts with 40% - that's where your 20% independent or swing voters comes from.

But the black vote does nothing for Obama with that 20%, because it's already in the 40% he begins with (and I'll acknowledge Clinton could lose some of that vote if she's the nominee). You don't get to count it again, because there are virtually no black swing voters in the 20%. There are a lot of Latinos in the middle though.

Similarly, the youth vote doesn't add much to Obama pulling votes out of the middle. In fact it probably only offsets at best the votes of Latinos, whites and women Obama loses. An increase in black turnout helps him too, but not much.

So that leaves Obama and Clinton in the same place - trying to attract more than half of the 20% that sits in the middle.


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Why We Need A Unity Ticket | 272 comments (272 topical)

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