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Obama Starts Ad Blitz in Pennsylvania | 284 comments (284 topical)

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Why do you assume... (none / 0) (#13)
by mbuchel on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 10:48:06 PM EST
that they're registering just for one day?  Believe it or not, a vote for Obama is not necessarily a vote against Clinton.
You know what they say about assuming...

[ Parent ]
I assume many are "Dems for a Day" (5.00 / 2) (#77)
by Cream City on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 11:38:40 PM EST
because that has been the phrase on Obama flyers to recruit such voters in several states.  Google to see some discussed here in past, read the rest of these appeals, and see the promises that switching to Dem registration in primaries does not prevent switching back to Republican for the fall election.

I also assume that Obama advertising, such as this, is effective and worth the outspending of Clinton by as much as 5 to 1 in other states so far.  Those are expensive votes -- but the real cost to the party comes when those voters don't come back in November to vote for the nominee that they picked to beat.

[ Parent ]

Can you provide any proof (none / 0) (#149)
by clapclappointpoint on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 12:29:19 AM EST
for your wild claims about some nefarious Obama "Dem for a Day" campaign?  In NV, a single precint captain, on his own, sent out flyers saying something similar, but I haven't heard about anything else like this happening.

Meanwhile, Bill and Hillary have praised McCain as having CiC credentials and loving his country while declining to say the same thing about Obama.

[ Parent ]

Ask nicely (nt) (none / 0) (#154)
by Cream City on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 12:38:07 AM EST


[ Parent ]
I think they may also have said (none / 0) (#168)
by echinopsia on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 12:52:07 AM EST
that they are proud of their lovely and accomplished daughter Chelsea, but they didn't say they were also proud of the lovely and accomplished Barry.

Call Edward R. Murrow.

[ Parent ]

YOU provide proof they will stay! (none / 0) (#289)
by hellothere on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 11:16:46 AM EST
come on now! we are waiting! sound of crickets!

[ Parent ]
Party Building Nonsense (none / 0) (#171)
by cal1942 on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 12:54:31 AM EST
Another Obama myth is the 'we're attracting new people into the party.'

In Texas an analysis of the vote reveals that Obama supporters voted for only President and left the rest of the ballot blank.

A much smaller percentage of Clinton supporters vacated the ballot after registering their choice for President. Basically Clinton supporters went through the entire ballot.

It is not a demonstration of potential coattalis when supporters are only interested in one person on the ballot.

It certainly does not demonstrate party building.

Real party building is when the number of people willing to work election after election for down ticket candidates is increased.

If Obama's appeal is to those dumb enough to want reconciliation, compromise with Republicans, etc.; it's really hard to picture any of those people as partisan party loyalists going door to door canvasing for the Democratic candidate for state represntative or county commissioner, etc.

[ Parent ]

Because Republicans are never going (4.66 / 3) (#19)
by tigercourse on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 10:51:39 PM EST
to vote for Obama in a contest against McCain. If they are anti-choice, pro-gun, pro-military, anti-tax, etc. they have absolutely no reason to back Obama.

[ Parent ]
I have 3 close friends who self ID as Republican (none / 0) (#35)
by Knocienz on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 11:00:45 PM EST
2 are strongly committed to voting for Obama over McCain. I haven't discussed it with the third (who I suspect will stick to McCain.)

Not a statistically significant sample, but certainly relevant.


[ Parent ]

3 on 301,000,000 (none / 0) (#42)
by lilburro on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 11:06:43 PM EST
speaking of which, when did that happen???  why am i used to 260,000,000 as my figure?

D*** YOU SOCIAL STUDIES TEACHERS!!!  ;)

[ Parent ]

They're balanced out by two Republican friends (none / 0) (#264)
by andrys on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 07:04:04 AM EST
I'm just kidding here, but it's also the truth.  

  I have two Republican friends who have never voted Democrat but they are hoping to be able to vote for Hillary in Nov.

  :-)   You're right, it's relevant but I can't guess how much of each will be happening where.

  In the meantime, Rasmussen Reports came out today with poll results after the speech, and it's not looking good for Obama in their poll.

   A progressive blog page shows electoral maps as of SurveyUSA's 3/20 results and that definitely doesn't look good, though at least Clinton looks better for a win in this one, over McCain.  (Colors are the reverse of what's expected.)

   Those are based on Survey USA's latest poll on the 20th.  It'll be interesting to see what happens with longer range effects of the speech and also the "a typical white person" remark.
 

[ Parent ]

Then we aren't disagreeing (none / 0) (#286)
by Knocienz on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 11:10:11 AM EST
I was responding to a statement that insisted that Republicans were never going to vote for Obama and that those switching over were just engaged in dirty tricks.

My experience is that there are plenty that will and targeting those individuals is appropriate; that we want them to join the party and. That there are some who will also vote for Hilary wasn't relevant to that specific point. That people might accuse Rush Limbaugh of dirty tricks for encouraging people to vote for the person he thinks states is a weaker candidate (but really things will get him better ratings and material) isn't the same thing at all IMO.

I followed your Rasmussen link and the main ad was for John McCain. ;-)  Gallup has Obama mostly recovered from the worst of it and back ahead of Hillary in national numbers. So it appears to be a 'pick your poll' moment. We'll see how things continue over the next few days.

[ Parent ]

when to target and how (none / 0) (#291)
by tree on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 11:51:11 AM EST
is an important aspect of coverting Republicans for real, and not just to skew a primary for the personal gain of one candidate. I don't think that targeting Republicans with a GOTV drive in a democratic primary is the way to get REAL republican converts. Its just a way to game the system in your favor. If Republicans really do want to vote Democratic, they don't need to vote in the Democratic primary to prove it. The difference in the issues between the two candidates is relatively small, so if a Republican is seriously considering voting Democratic, it really shouldn't matter in November which one wins the primary. But, if a Republican is voting in a Democratic primary just to game the system, that is not a good thing, and should be greatly discouraged. That's why knowing when to target and how is so important, unless you're just using those votes to try to help wreck your primary opponent's chances in the primary--which is very shortsighted.

[ Parent ]
Gaming the system is bad. We agree (none / 0) (#294)
by Knocienz on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 01:26:05 PM EST
But considering the large number of Republicans who have stopped self-identifying as such, it isn't unreasonable at all to tell those folks that they may also want to re-register.

I also think that encouraging them to re-register as a Dem rather than as Independent is a fine thing.

As for the difference on the issues being so small that it shouldn't matter who they vote for, THAT we disagree on. Consider how many folks on this site insist that they would vote for McCain over Obama if he wins.

[ Parent ]

I haven't noticed more than one or two that said (none / 0) (#295)
by tree on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 03:03:46 PM EST
they'd vote for McCain-and that may include some Obama pprimary voters. I've seen more that won't vote for either Obama or McCain. But again, supporters views don't translate to differences on the issues between the candidates.

 I don't think of Obama as any more liberal than Clinton. They are both centrists. I'm more concerned with Obama's advisers, especially those from the U of Chicago school of economic thought, and of course Brennan, his intelligence advisor, who thinks telecom immunity is a good and necessary thing. Of course, maybe Obama's slight rightward slant is a reason for Republicans to back Obama, but then again, why wouldn't they vote for the real deal in McCain if they want a rightward slant.

As for telling all those folks to re-register as Democrats, why not wait until the general starts and just urge them to vote Democratic in the general. That gives the Democrats the good, new voters, without the bad--gamers who aren't sincere.    

[ Parent ]

The firearms vote (none / 0) (#105)
by Ben Masel on Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 11:56:09 PM EST
Nearly all the tickets split between Feingold and Bush in Wisconsin in 2004 were from the "Gun Belt" counties of northern and western Wisconsin. Obama, while less pro-firearms rights than Russ, has framed the issue correctly for November, as a Rights matter, rather than "hunters and sportsmen."


This is a test of the Emergency Free Speech System. This is only a test. If this had been an actual emergency, I'd already be locked up.
[ Parent ]
and people who don't think realistically (none / 0) (#205)
by hellothere on Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 01:29:15 AM EST
are called naive.

[ Parent ]

Obama Starts Ad Blitz in Pennsylvania | 284 comments (284 topical)

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