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FL. Poll: One in Four May Abandon Democratic Party | 102 comments (102 topical)

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well... (none / 0) (#54)
by corn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:36:21 PM EST
I wasn't referring to the voters when I was talking about the party players.  

But to the point, Dean has a strong incentive to make Florida count.  The egg on his face from reversing himself is nothing compared to what he'll get when the Dems lose the general.  He won't risk that.  My guess is that there are still attempts at negotiating going on, but neither campaign will concede much and are willing to take the nuclear option (convention fight).  That's the worst scenario for Dean.  His preference at this point is for them to strike a deal, but it may not happen.

If you think about the various motivations of the players, the likely outcomes become more clear.  As I said above, trying to read their faces is pointless.  The 'evidence' out there is next to meaningless.  The real fight is not happening in public, and it rarely does.  

Obama is the only one that truly wants FL/MI excluded.  To him it's worth the risk.  It's not to anyone else.

[ Parent ]

It is short sightedness for sure (none / 0) (#56)
by Virginian on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:41:31 PM EST
by Dean, Obama, you name it...

But to be frank about it all, this is a nomination election. Dean's embarrassment over FL and MI lasts as long as the convention...

If Obama loses the GE (assuming he's the nominee) some folks of course will blame others (we do have a "victim" culture after all) but Dean does have the "escape hatch" of saying "No, no, Obama lost it all on his own" which will have a degree of truth too (that the people blaming others will of course be blind to)

We shouldn't forget this is politics (which fits logical and often tried and true patterns)...no amount of  existential/transcendental rhetoric will make it not so.

[ Parent ]

Perhaps that's our point of disagreement then. (none / 0) (#58)
by corn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:46:54 PM EST
I think Dean is thinking past the nomination.  He wants to be the guy that fixed the party.  There's only one way to do that.

[ Parent ]
I see Dean's view of fixing the party (none / 0) (#63)
by Virginian on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 11:01:43 PM EST
much more narrowly. I think he is trying to put all the wheels and gears in place so that when the party head flips the switch the machine works...the messages will go top down, the money will flow both directions, and in the end THAT will help Democrats get elected beyond just one election...

That is the essence of inserting national party into  state and local arenas...which he has done. Democrats have not had a "machine" in a very long time. We've been wondering the wilderness. And in someways we're working against our own efforts (here in the nets)

[ Parent ]

FL. Poll: One in Four May Abandon Democratic Party | 102 comments (102 topical)

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