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FL. Poll: One in Four May Abandon Democratic Party | 102 comments (102 topical)

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They're going to be seated. (none / 0) (#10)
by corn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:13:53 PM EST
There's no way around it - never has been.  The hope was that one candidate would create a margin that rendered the rule-breakers meaningless but that's not going to happen.  Dean is proving himself a poor leader of the DNC but he's not so stupid to hand his party a noose with which to hang him.  This is why Clinton appears relaxed on the issue, and why she never really wanted a re-vote.  There's only one way through it.

Except the Democratic party (none / 0) (#20)
by tandem5 on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:24:17 PM EST
has, at times, proven to be exceedingly good at running off cliffs.

[ Parent ]
True, (none / 0) (#27)
by corn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:37:33 PM EST
but this is not analogous to nominating Dukakis.

[ Parent ]
corn you beat me to it. very true! smile! (none / 0) (#50)
by hellothere on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:20:58 PM EST


[ Parent ]
No, I don't think Clinton thinks Dean (none / 0) (#22)
by litigatormom on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:31:28 PM EST
is going to seat them, and no, I don't thing she's relaxed.

But the person who really shouldn't be relaxed is Obama.  If you accept that not seating or re-voting FLA and MI makes it impossible for Clinton to win the nomination, then Obama has to wonder whether not seating or re-voting FLA and MI makes it impossible for him to win the GE.

How can it be acceptable for the Democratic Party to write-off the combined electoral votes of FLA and MI? They have 44 electoral votes between them -- that's more than 16% of the total number of electoral votes needed to win.

[ Parent ]

PA and OH (5.00 / 1) (#74)
by PennProgressive on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:50:03 AM EST
If FL and MI delegates are not seated as per the election results in January or if there is no re-vote (and it seems that both these scenarios have very high pprobability of occurring) it  is almost sure that Senator Obama will be the  nominee.  Unfortunately the nomination will be  tainted. At this point it must be that the Obama camp and the DNC are thinking that it will not damage the party's prospect in GE and that MI and perhaps FL will vote for the democratic candidate. I do not think that  will happen. Given the poll in FL, it does not seem likely that Obama will be able to carry FL. Perhaps MI but not FL. In that case Democrats must carry OH and PA to win GE. Again I am doubtful that Obama will be able to win OH. But even if he does, he will not win PA, McCain will. The only republican candidate who can carry PA  is McCain. PA has strong ties to armed forces and  there is tremendous respect for McCain.(Don't  get me wrong  even HRC cannot be certain of a GE win in PA against PA, but only she can pull it  off with her hometown-girl image and strength in economic issues) And without FL  and PA (and  perhaps OH) how are we going to win ? By  winning Mississippi, Utah and  Idaho? Yes we have again done the almost impossible thing---assuring a republican victory in 2008. Dean should be really proud.

[ Parent ]
I can really envision (none / 0) (#105)
by ghost2 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 11:30:13 PM EST
The Florida and Michigan delegation walking out of convention and boycotting it.  Otherwise, would they be re-elected in their respective states?

Republicans must congratulate themselves. Never in their wildest dreams they thought their moving the primary forward would be so effective.

A map changer, yes.  Look for Michigan and Florida to solidly go republican for a generation.

[ Parent ]

You're making my point. (none / 0) (#26)
by corn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:34:43 PM EST
It's unacceptable.  It's far-fetched.  It won't happen.

[ Parent ]
I wish (none / 0) (#30)
by Step Beyond on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:38:45 PM EST
I wish I shared your belief in this. But Dean has been perfectly clear that he believes the voters will not care about this in the general. That they will vote on Iraq and other issues.

Now that was last year and maybe he's changed his opinion since then, but I haven't seen any indication of it yet.

[ Parent ]

Yeah (none / 0) (#32)
by litigatormom on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:41:59 PM EST
Just like Tom Daschle was sure that voters would vote for Democrats on economic issues as long as they supported Bush on the war.

Dean's political instincts -- why do they have any currency at this point?

[ Parent ]

Well of course he's not going to blink (none / 0) (#33)
by corn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:46:32 PM EST
until he has to.  I wouldn't judge this by the faces  the players are making.

[ Parent ]
The voters will care (none / 0) (#69)
by BarnBabe on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 11:32:53 PM EST
Believe me, they will be disenfranchised if their primary vote is not counted. Hand the state to the Republicans.

[ Parent ]
Bleah...not so (none / 0) (#34)
by Virginian on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:50:04 PM EST
They won't seat them...
To many people have a vested interest in NOT seating them.
The credentials committee is also going to be very reluctant to cause a scene...if they do, they will be accused of one thing - racism and the convention will be a mess (there are people that are already vocally saying that if Obama does not get the nomination, they intend on trying to make the convention a mess)

[ Parent ]
More have an interest the other way. (none / 0) (#38)
by corn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:56:53 PM EST
Obama and his supporters don't want them seated, and don't have regard for the consequences.  But Clinton and the Dem party generally have a huge interest in seating them.  Even if you assume Obama leads in party player support, there's no way most of those supporters agree with alienating Florida.  This debate about who's on the rules committee is simplistic.  Politics has more layers than an onion.

Another factor is what really motivates the party players, and it aint all presidential politics.  Most are more concerned with their reelection and survival/expansion of their congressional majorities.  

[ Parent ]

Bologna (none / 0) (#43)
by Virginian on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:06:45 PM EST
The Dem party is not what you think it is...the average "voter" even when registered as a Dem is not really a party of the party in inclusive sense you're using...

The local party is generally a club; and very often is fairly exclusive. Some places it may be a "boys" club, some places a "girls" club, some places a young club, others an old club...but it is often an exclusive club of friends that do not often let others join

The state party is usually some form of loose "trade organization"

And the national party is more of an interest group headed by a select few people...to Dean's credit he has tried to create a heirarchy where there as been an extremely loose affiliation and top down control in the past...he's trying to build the party by regaining control of the party...hasn't worked (yet)

But the short and the long of it is that the few folks that actually matter in this decision, are the few folks that were involved in the mistake...Donna Brazile has openly said she does not support revisiting this travesty...Dean has exercised a big zero in leadership on this issue, all evidence points to NOT seating, and the main reasons seems to be basically egg on face...and the credential's committee does not want to be the controversial aspect of the convention, so they are unlikely to buck the decision either...and the cherry on top is politics, Obama will never agree to any decision that does not benefit his campaign (short sighted on this issue though)...so he will never sign off on ANYTHING but not counting or 50-50...

[ Parent ]

well... (none / 0) (#54)
by corn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:36:21 PM EST
I wasn't referring to the voters when I was talking about the party players.  

But to the point, Dean has a strong incentive to make Florida count.  The egg on his face from reversing himself is nothing compared to what he'll get when the Dems lose the general.  He won't risk that.  My guess is that there are still attempts at negotiating going on, but neither campaign will concede much and are willing to take the nuclear option (convention fight).  That's the worst scenario for Dean.  His preference at this point is for them to strike a deal, but it may not happen.

If you think about the various motivations of the players, the likely outcomes become more clear.  As I said above, trying to read their faces is pointless.  The 'evidence' out there is next to meaningless.  The real fight is not happening in public, and it rarely does.  

Obama is the only one that truly wants FL/MI excluded.  To him it's worth the risk.  It's not to anyone else.

[ Parent ]

It is short sightedness for sure (none / 0) (#56)
by Virginian on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:41:31 PM EST
by Dean, Obama, you name it...

But to be frank about it all, this is a nomination election. Dean's embarrassment over FL and MI lasts as long as the convention...

If Obama loses the GE (assuming he's the nominee) some folks of course will blame others (we do have a "victim" culture after all) but Dean does have the "escape hatch" of saying "No, no, Obama lost it all on his own" which will have a degree of truth too (that the people blaming others will of course be blind to)

We shouldn't forget this is politics (which fits logical and often tried and true patterns)...no amount of  existential/transcendental rhetoric will make it not so.

[ Parent ]

Perhaps that's our point of disagreement then. (none / 0) (#58)
by corn on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:46:54 PM EST
I think Dean is thinking past the nomination.  He wants to be the guy that fixed the party.  There's only one way to do that.

[ Parent ]
I see Dean's view of fixing the party (none / 0) (#63)
by Virginian on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 11:01:43 PM EST
much more narrowly. I think he is trying to put all the wheels and gears in place so that when the party head flips the switch the machine works...the messages will go top down, the money will flow both directions, and in the end THAT will help Democrats get elected beyond just one election...

That is the essence of inserting national party into  state and local arenas...which he has done. Democrats have not had a "machine" in a very long time. We've been wondering the wilderness. And in someways we're working against our own efforts (here in the nets)

[ Parent ]

Haven't you heard that Obama will (none / 0) (#28)
by Joelarama on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:37:40 PM EST
change politics and bring new people into politics?  We're talking about a candidate who will bust the paradigm.  These details will work themselves out -- he must be the nominee.

The people around him believe it.  His supporters believe it.  He might even believe it.

[ Parent ]

Are his politics so fresh and new (5.00 / 1) (#29)
by litigatormom on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:38:44 PM EST
that he no longer needs to obtain 270 electoral votes?

That would be breaking the paradigm.

[ Parent ]

Yes...the paradigm will change because of one man (none / 0) (#37)
by Virginian on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:55:34 PM EST
what a joke...

There have been better men than Obama, and men that held that held ALL the nation's strings in their hand (FDR?) and commanded ALL of the nation's respect (FDR again) and they couldn't change the paradigm...politics is an adversarial contest...it is that by it's nature...to suggest it be otherwise is like suggesting water can run uphill...not being adversarial is what leads to tyranny of the majority and the decay of democracy...

Post-partisanship is a sound bite, what we REALLY need is "rational-partisanship"...there is nothing wrong with being a partisan.

[ Parent ]

I Also Heard That He Doesn't Need (none / 0) (#46)
by MO Blue on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:13:27 PM EST
FL & MI to win the general election and he will 65% of the vote and the Dems will have a 60+ Senate majority due to Obama's coattails. Think some Dems have traded in the donkey and replaced it with a magic pony.

[ Parent ]
Of course (5.00 / 1) (#57)
by Virginian on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 10:45:56 PM EST
If Obama isn't walking on water he is destroying the matrix...

I have no idea where Obama became the individual who will break the 200+ year mold and defy statistics, logic, theory, etc...

I remember student government elections from grade school...I realized then that ice cream wasn't going to come out of the water fountains like the candidates promised...I don't understand why as adults we're all forgetting that lesson...

[ Parent ]

FL. Poll: One in Four May Abandon Democratic Party | 102 comments (102 topical)

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