home
Obama as the Next McGovern? | 198 comments (198 topical)
I don't know (5.00 / 1) (#72)
by badger on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 07:44:05 PM EST
But the answer to that isn't especially relevant to this discussion. Clinton winning the caucuses wouldn't prove her viability as a candidate anymore than Obama winning them did.

On the issue of electability, caucuses are pretty meaningless - they certainly aren't any kind of evidence that, for example, Obama will carry NE in the general election (or even IA).

Primaries won't prove that either, but at least the represent a broader base and in open primary states include independents too.

The problem that occurs is when Democratic activists or factions within the party are out of sync with the electorate generally - that's what happened in 1972 (or 1964 for Goldwater and the GOP). Whether that's happening this year is anybody's guess, but I think it's worth considering.

The evidence for it isn't especially strong. It's mostly Obama's inability to carry large state primaries. I think there are some other factors, but they could just as well be anti-Obama bias at this point.

What evidence do you have that that isn't the case?


[ Parent ]

Obama as the Next McGovern? | 198 comments (198 topical)

  • Premium Ads

  • Blog Ads

  • Contribute To TalkLeft

    donate to TalkLeft