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Powerline? (none / 0) (#22)
by squeaky on Wed May 02, 2007 at 12:27:02 PM EST
Somewhere yesterday I hard that 1 out of 2 Mexicans have family members working in the US.

Mexico -- Population: 107,449,525

Let's see 107, 449, 525 divided by two equals 53,724,62.

If 53,724,62 had, let's conservatively say, 2 of their family members working in the US that would equal the whole population of Mexico working in the US.

Great anti-immigration talking point ppj. Scary numbers for anyone who never learned basic math.


[ Parent ]

Math (5.00 / 2) (#28)
by Peaches on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:43:07 PM EST
Somewhere yesterday I hard that 1 out of 2 Mexicans have family members working in the US.

First, this statistic doesn't really tell us much. But, Squeaky, it is not your math skills that are limiting but your analysis and use of the tools you ere taught.

Population: 107,449,525

Let's see 107, 449, 525 divided by two equals 53,724,62.

Why are you dividing by Two?

If 53,724,62 had, let's conservatively say, 2 of their family members working in the US that would equal the whole population of Mexico working in the US.

You now just undid what you previously had done? Why? That made absolutely no sense at all.

Did you go to public schools too? ;)

All right, what should we have done. Family members? Define family members. Actually, if you think about this intuitively and the idea of six degrees of separation, you can see that that the statement that 1 out of 2 Mexicans have family members working in the US is true yet meaningless if we are liberal with the definition of family members and count most everyone in the world as members of the same family (Actually, not that absurd when you consider that most of us share common ancestors that go back less than 10 generations in our family tree and all of us do going back 50 generations).

But if you define family members an immediate family including husbands and wives, mothers and fathers, sons and daughters, brothers and sisters, Aunts and Uncles, Grandparents, and first cousins and Nieces and Nephews and you consider the average nuclear family size (lets say 5), Mathematically, each person would have this many possible family members.

Wife - 1
children - 3
grandchildren - 9
parents - 2
grandparents - 4
Aunts and Uncles - 4
Cousins - 12

That is a conservative figure for 35 family members. I am not sure of the Mexican average nuclear family, but the family members I include is a small list.

This leads to the possibility that 1 out of 2 Mexicans have family members working in the US is not far fetched, but again pretty meaningless.

[ Parent ]

Indeed (none / 0) (#29)
by sarcastic unnamed one on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:47:56 PM EST
This leads to the possibility that 1 out of 2 Mexicans have family members working in the US is not far fetched, but again pretty meaningless.


[ Parent ]
Hah. (none / 0) (#30)
by Gabriel Malor on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:49:42 PM EST
Did you go to public schools too?

Funny. This had better not become the new joke around here. ;)

And SUO, no, it's not on 70's history (although I'd be in marginally better shape for such a test, after today's discussion!). It's Wills & Trusts. Fun times, my friend.

[ Parent ]

What school? (none / 0) (#31)
by sarcastic unnamed one on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:06:31 PM EST
I'm guessing, UCLA or Pepperdine, as I thinbk you've mentioned in the past that you live in (the Socialist Republic of) Santa Monica.

[ Parent ]
My Point Exactly (none / 0) (#33)
by squeaky on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:22:12 PM EST
Cutting to the chase:

pretty meaningless.


[ Parent ]
Well (none / 0) (#23)
by sarcastic unnamed one on Wed May 02, 2007 at 01:47:49 PM EST
numbers are funny things.

I have a relatively small family, but, still, at family reunions we are at least 30 strong when all the aunts, uncles, cousins, grand kids, etc., are present.

The claim is 1 in 2, so Mexican pop ~= 100 mill and 100mill x 1/2 = 50mill.

Using my small family size of 30:

50mill / 30=1,666,666 family members working in the US.

Or, said another way, it would only take 1,666,666 Mexicans to be working here in the US for the claim that 1 in 2 Mexicans have family members working here to be true.

fwiw.

[ Parent ]

Huh? (none / 0) (#24)
by squeaky on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:02:25 PM EST
50mill / 30=1,666,666 family members working in the US.

Not sure I follow your point.

If you were to follow ppj's argument it would be 50mil times 30, not divided by 30. That equals 1,500,000,000, a number far in excess of Mexico's population.

[ Parent ]

I think the claim is that (none / 0) (#26)
by sarcastic unnamed one on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:34:24 PM EST
1 in 2 Mexicans have a family member working in the US.

Using a family size of 30, for every 1 Mexican working in the US, he/she has 30 family members in Mexico.

If there were 1,666,666 Mexicans working in the US, there would be 1,666,666 x 30 = 50 million relatives in Mexico with a family member working in the US.

50 mill is 1 in 2 Mexicans.

(Although, I did mess up a little on the math. Actually, if the family size is 30, then there would really only be 29 family members in Mexico, not 30, so the claim would need 1,724,138 Mexicans working the the US for it to be supportable.)


[ Parent ]

Not Following (none / 0) (#32)
by squeaky on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:10:22 PM EST
Using a family size of 30, for every 1 Mexican working in the US, he/she has 30 family members in Mexico.

Sorry I do not your example.  If half of the Mexican population has more than 2 family members working in the US. To find out how many Mexican family members are working in the US the equation would be.

half of the population of mexico x 2 family members working in the US = the number of mexican family members working in the US.

That is if none of the Mexicans who have family members in the US are related. Which is unlikely.

So without knowing how many people are related in the 50%  of the Mexican population who have family members working in the US there is no way to get an accurate answer.

It could be something like this:

Given a total population of 60 in Mexico, 30 people have 2 family members working in the US. If the 30 people are all related there are only two mexican workers in the US.

[ Parent ]

Squeaky (none / 0) (#34)
by sarcastic unnamed one on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:27:16 PM EST
You need to completely remove this from your train of thought:
If half of the Mexican population has more than 2 family members working in the US.
it has nothing to do with anything.

The claim is 1 of every 2 Mexicans has a family member working in the US.

Assume a 30 person family, ie, there are 30 family members in a Mexican family.

For every 1 person from a Mexican family working in the US, he/she would have 29 relatives in Mexico who, in return, have (that person as) a relative working in the US.

Therefor, for every 1 Mexican working in the US there are 29 Mexicans in Mexico with a family member working in the US.

For every 2 Mexicans working in the US there are 58 Mexicans in Mexico with a relative working in the US.

For every 1,724,138 Mexican working in the US there are 50 million Mexicans in Mexico with a relative working in the US.

50 mill = 1/2 of 100 mill = 1 in 2 Mexicans have a family member working in the US.

I don't know how I can explain it any clearer.


[ Parent ]

Heh. (none / 0) (#25)
by Gabriel Malor on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:07:47 PM EST
I'm glad you posted about the numbers. I saw that squeaky had a numbers problem with his comment, but didn't have the time to respond.

[Strictly speaking, I don't really have time to be writing this either; I have a final in an hour.]

[ Parent ]

I just hope it's not on '70s history! (none / 0) (#27)
by sarcastic unnamed one on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:38:53 PM EST
;-)

Good luck on the final.

[ Parent ]

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