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The Problem With Obama | 32 comments (32 topical)

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Four points in response: (none / 0) (#8)
by Geekesque on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 02:29:25 PM EST
  1.  Likely voter screens are notoriously unreliable for Iowa caucuses.  Even the best poll severely overestimates the incidence of actual caucus goers

  2.  Obama is doing very well in terms of second-choice preferences, which does matter a great deal

  3.  Look at the trend lines at pollster.com--Obama is gaining ground, not losing ground in Iowa.  On the other hand, John Edwards has steadily lost support since January.

  4.  The McClurkin thing was a fiasco, and his entire SC clown show belongs in the Dunce Hall of Fame.  But, it's not something that people in Iowa are paying attention to.  Unlike Clinton's Iran vote, which is drawing attention.


[ Parent ]
Advertising (none / 0) (#10)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 02:46:29 PM EST
Richardson "gained ground" when he advertised as well.

That is a pretty easy thing to see.

Edwards as not advertised.

Let me put it this way. I think we can almost predict Edwards' result now - 26-32%.

The other results are the issue.

Obama has not evidenced a message that will give him a meaningful swing.

Does he have something new to bring to the table?

[ Parent ]

Edwards has very little money to spend (none / 0) (#13)
by Geekesque on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 03:15:39 PM EST
on television advertising in Iowa.

He's capped at just over a $1 Million.  That will get drowned out with what Clinton and Obama have.

The joy of public financing.

Obama's campaign themes actually play pretty well in Iowa--just a matter of closing the sale.

Clinton's #2 choice polling is not very good.  She is vulnerable.

But, all she has to do is beat Obama.  She steamrolls in 3/6 scenarios:

Clinton-Obama-Edwards
Clinton-Edwards-Obama
Edwards-Clinton-Obama

She emerges as a co-frontrunner in this scenario:

Edwards-Obama-Clinton

She's in a real fight for her life under this scenario:

Obama-Clinton-Edwards

She's in big trouble if:

Obama-Edwards-Clinton.

Keep in mind that Edwards is going to be attacking her from now until January.  As will his 527 group.

[ Parent ]

Contradictory points (none / 0) (#15)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 03:33:22 PM EST
Edwards can't spend and yet he will use all his money on attacking Hillary?

Actually, I think Edwards is counting on Obama to do the dirty work. And he is probably rigt.

As you can see, I think Edwards is in the best position in Iowa.

[ Parent ]

You have it backwards. (none / 0) (#17)
by Geekesque on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 03:51:16 PM EST
Obama is counting on Edwards to do the dirty work.

Edwards thinks Obama is too wimpy to take Hillary head-on.

We shall see.

Edwards's themes are all about Hillary.  Which make sense.  Second place behind Hillary is a tiretread mark across your face.

Reality is that Edwards is losing support every month instead of gaining it.  Losing traction.

He's also not viable past Iowa.  Can't win New Hampshire.  No prayer in South Carolina (barely outpolling the margin of error amongst African-Americans there), not enough money to contend on Super Duper Tuesday.

And he'd be out of money between February and August while the Republicans would pound the hell out of him if he did get the nomination, which cuts against his electability.

[ Parent ]

Counting on Edwards (none / 0) (#25)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 04:51:19 PM EST
Weren't we just promised Obama is going to "take on Hillary?"

[ Parent ]
Chart of trendlines in Iowa (none / 0) (#14)
by Geekesque on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 03:26:45 PM EST
http://www.pollster.com/AIATopDems600.png

[ Parent ]
Well (none / 0) (#16)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 03:35:52 PM EST
As you know, I do not think much of those trendlines without looking inside the numbers and considering the ad expenditures.

[ Parent ]
Sure, Edwards got outspent badly (none / 0) (#18)
by Geekesque on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 03:52:43 PM EST
in that time period.

And he'll get badly outspent from here on out.

Money matters.

[ Parent ]

Not as much as you think (none / 0) (#23)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 04:47:55 PM EST


[ Parent ]

The Problem With Obama | 32 comments (32 topical)

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